Los Angeles Lakers: Will the roster upheaval bring an NBA title?

It probably seems longer, but only 10 months ago the Los Angeles Lakers clinched the 2020 title in Orlando.

As all fans know, the 2021 season was ruined by injuries. Anthony Davis missed half the season while LeBron James sat out 27 games. The duo returned for the playoffs but were obviously not at full strength. Once AD was unable to play at all the team lost its first-round series to Phoenix.

To a man, the players and front office believed that had they been healthy, the Lakers would have beaten the Suns. So the prevailing sentiment was “Let’s run it back next season” when AD and LeBron will presumably have completely recovered.

But general manager Rob Pelinka seemed to have second thoughts. He apparently decided that the team needed not just an injection of new blood but nearly a full transfusion. In fact, the turnover in their roster since they won championship #17 has exceeded what nearly everyone outside the organization anticipated.

Only three players have been with the Lakers continuously from that title team through now: James, Davis and emerging youngster Talen Horton-Tucker. A fourth player, Dwight Howard, has rejoined the team after playing a season with Philadelphia.

How this unprecedented change of personnel for a championship team plays out remains to be seen. But let’s look at how the team that Pelinka just assembled compares to its predecessors in several important categories.

Comparing the Los Angeles Lakers to their predecessors:

Scoring

In 2020, the team scored 113.4 points per game, 11th in the league. AD led the Lakers with 26.1 points with LeBron right behind at 25.3. Only one other player averaged double figures, Kyle Kuzma (12.8), although five scored between 7.1 and 9.3 (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Avery Bradley, Danny Green, Howard and Rajon Rondo).

During that offseason Pelinka signed two players to beef up the 2021 offense, Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell. In the process he jettisoned Bradley, Green, Howard and Rondo.

Although it can be argued that both newcomers under-performed, in 2021 Schroder averaged 15.4 points and Harrell 13.5 while Kuzma chipped in 12.9 and midseason acquisition Andre Drummond scored 11.9. Yet the team averaged only 109.5 points, 22nd in the league, although much of that drop-off can be attributed to the absences of the two stars.

What can be expected of the 2021-22 team? If Davis and James are in good shape physically, they will probably again average 50 points between them. Pelinka added a legitimate third scorer, Russell Westbrook, in exchange for Kuzma and KCP. Westbrook has averaged 23 points over his 13-year career and 22 points last year with Washington.

In addition, six other new players were added, five of which should help the offense:

• Carmelo Anthony is still an offensive force at age 37. Last season he embraced the sixth man role he will likely play with the Lakers, averaging 13.4 points in 24.5 minutes.
• Kendrick Nunn scored 14.6 points in 29.5 minutes in his second NBA season. He will probably back-up Westbrook at point guard and provide some needed youthful energy.
• Malik Monk, 11.7 points in 20.9 minutes. The former 11th pick of the 2017 draft struggled in his first three pro seasons but was much more effective in 2021.
• Wayne Ellington, 9.6 points in 22.0 minutes. The 12-year veteran has always been an excellent outside shooter.
• Kent Bazemore, 7.2 points in 19.9 minutes. He is more of a slasher than a shooter who is also the best defender of this group.

The team also re-signed Horton-Tucker, who averaged 9 PPG last year in 20 minutes. He pledged to work diligently on his outside shot during the offseason.

This group should potentially provide more offensive firepower than either of the last two seasons. They collectively replaced Schroder, Harrell, Kuzma, Drummond, KCP, Alex Caruso, Wes Matthews, Markieff Morris and Ben McLemore from last season’s Lakers.

Three-Point Shooting

The 2020 title team shot just 34.9% from deep, ranking 21st in the league. The leading shooters were KCP at 38.5%, Green at 36.7% and Bradley at 36.4%.

In 2021 the team shot 35.4%, again 21st. The best shooters were KCP and Marc Gasol, both at 41%, Caruso at 40.1%, McLemore at 36.8%, LeBron at 36.5% and Kuzma at 36.1%. Schroder and Matthews each shot a disappointing 33.5%.

Westbrook is a weak three-point shooter but the other incoming five players all shot well from long distance last season. Ellington connected on 42.2% of his attempts, Anthony 40.9%, Bazemore a career-high 40.8%, Monk 40.1% and Nunn 38.1%.

So at least on paper, it looks like this season’s Lakers should hit a higher percentage of their shots behind the line than they have the last couple of years.

Rebounding

In the 2020 title year, the Lakers ranked 9th in the league in rebounding, garnering 2.4 more boards per game than their opponents. Team leaders were AD with 9.3 a game, LeBron with 7.8, Howard with 7.3 and JaVale McGee, 5.7.

Last season the team ranked only 16th, collecting just 1.4 more rebounds than the opposition. Some of the drop-off was attributable to the absences of Davis (7.9) and James (7.7). Drummond led the team with 10.2 boards while Harrell pulled down 6.2 and Kuzma 6.1.

For the upcoming season, a healthy AD should increase his average and the return of Howard should help. In addition, for the fifth time in the last six years Westbrook averaged double-figure rebounds last season with a career-high 11.7 per game. So even without Drummond, Harrell and Kuzma the Lakers should win the battle of the boards.

Defense

Under Coach Frank Vogel the last two seasons the Lakers have played outstanding defense . In the championship season, they surrendered just 107.6 points per game, ranking 4th in the league.

Last season, even without Davis (one of the league’s best defenders) for half the season, they gave up only 106.8 PPG, 2nd in the NBA. In both seasons they were at or near the top in most defensive measures, including blocked shots (6.6 and 5.4 per game the past two years).

This season defense is the most questionable area for the Lakers. Howard, Bazemore and Trevor Ariza are all solid defenders. But none of the other newcomers (Westbrook, Melo, Ellington, Nunn or Monk) are regarded as above average individual defensive players.

MUST-READ: Minimum signings that would have been perfect in LA

Caruso’s on-ball defense and his ability to play the passing lanes will be missed. That’s why the team’s refusal to re-sign him is most puzzling. The Bulls offered him a four-year, $37 million deal. According to reports, he gave the Lakers an opportunity to match Chicago’s offer, and perhaps would have returned to LA for a bit less, but Pelinka wouldn’t go above $7 mill a year.

One of Vogel’s biggest challenges will be getting the new personnel to maintain a high quality of team defense. How successful he is will go a long way to determining the team’s success.

Starting Lineup

LeBron and AD are the constants, of course. But what about the other three starters?

In 2020, Green, McGee and first Bradley, then KCP started alongside them. All of them were good defenders but none were strong scorers.

In 2021, the other starters were KCP, Schroder and either Gasol or Drummond. Schroder is probably best suited to being a sixth man, but in a contract year, the Lakers granted his wish to start. He was never a good fit with James. Because Gasol is a three-point threat, he pulls his defender away from the paint to give others a clearer path to the basket.

For this coming season, Westbrook will join the two stars in the opening lineup. Gasol will probably start at center to open up driving lanes, especially for James and Westbrook. The fifth starter at shooting guard is up for grabs. Vogel will use training camp to see who fits best. The guess here is that Bazemore will assume KCP’s role because of his defense.

How does that compare with the preceding two years? It all depends how well Westbrook meshes with LeBron and AD. If he can complement the two, the Lakers offense should get off to a roaring start even if the defense isn’t quite what it has been. If not, the team could be in trouble.

The Bench

In the 2020 title season, the primary reserves were KCP (when he didn’t start in place of Bradley), Kuzma, Howard, Rondo, Caruso and Morris. Other than Kuzma, none were a double-digit scorer. As a whole, the group played pretty strong defense.

This past season both Harrell and Kuzma scored over 10 PPG. Caruso, THT, Matthews, Morris and McLemore also primarily came off the bench. None were consistent scorers but most contributed defensively.

For the new season, the bench will likely feature Melo, THT, Nunn, and, if Bazemore starts, Monk and Ellington. All are capable of scoring points, sometimes in bunches. Meanwhile, Howard and Ariza are both still proficient defenders despite the fact that both will be age 36 this season.

Like the starting unit, the reserves should provide more offense than the bench did the past two seasons. But they won’t be as strong defensively.

The Outlook

The Los Angeles Lakers’ superior defense was a major reason why they won the title in 2020. Last year their defense carried them as far as possible until the injuries to Davis and James caught up to them in the playoffs.

Pelinka’s moves demonstrated that he believes providing the two stars with better offensive support, even at the expense of the team’s defense, will give them the best chance at challenging for the championship. If all or at least most of the newcomers live up to their capabilities, he may be proven right.

The road to the title won’t be easy. At least five other Western Conference teams (the Suns, Clippers, Jazz, Warriors and Nuggets) also have championship aspirations. And the Nets and Bucks, among other Eastern Conference teams, will also challenge the Lakers.

What do you think? Did the roster upheaval put the Lakers in better position to win the 2022 title?

All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.