The Los Angeles Lakers have passed the halfway point in the season. They remain mired in 13th place after losing Wednesday night, five games below .500. In fact, they are in a similar position to where they were a year ago. Does that mean they are destined to miss the postseason for the second straight season?
There are two ways that question can be answered. Nobody can be certain of the team’s fate, but everyone has an opinion. Your point of view may largely depend on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist.
Let’s take a closer look at the two opposing viewpoints.
The optimistic view of the Los Angeles Lakers:
The Lakers struggled early, losing 10 of their first 12 games, but had started to play much better until a series of injuries hit. The worst one, of course, was to their star, Anthony Davis, who was approaching or exceeding career bests in most categories with averages of 27 points, 12 rebounds and 2 blocks while shooting 59% from the field. He was arguably the #1 player in the NBA when he hurt his foot, causing him to miss the last 19 games.
Injuries have also sidelined key supporting players Lonnie Walker and Austin Reaves, who were both making important contributions before getting hurt. Walker had averaged nearly 15 points and connected on over 38% of his three-point attempts. Reaves was averaging 11 points while shooting 49% from the field, 36% behind the arc and contributing good defense.
However, the club says AD is making steady progress and could return to the court relatively soon. And neither Walker’s or Reaves’ injury is considered to be especially serious and both should also return to active duty in the near future. That is good news for a Lakers team that aspires to move up in the standings.
A close look at the Western Conference standings may also support the positive viewpoint. Right now, the 9 teams positioned from 5th through 13th place are tightly packed together. All of them have lost between 21 and 24 games.
That includes two teams that were expected to sit near the bottom of the West and fight for the #1 pick, Utah and Oklahoma City. But it also includes three clubs that most thought would be at or near the top of the West: Golden State, Phoenix and that other LA team.
It wouldn’t surprise anyone, once Davis returns, if the Lakers moved past both the Jazz and the Thunder. That would leave them fighting with not only the Warriors, Suns and Clippers, but also the Mavericks, T-wolves and Blazers for a playoff spot. It is also possible that the injury-wracked Pelicans or the surprising Kings could fall from their 3rd and 4th place positions.
Right now the most distinguishing characteristic of the Western Conference is parity. Any team that can put together even a small winning streak could vault several places in the standings and ultimately secure a playoff berth. If the Lakers come together as a team, and both Davis and LeBron James stay healthy, climbing as high as 5th place is not out of the question.
The pessimistic view of the Los Angeles Lakers:
Injuries are a part of the game, and the Lakers are not the only team missing a star or two. In New Orleans, Brandon Ingram has been able to suit up for only 15 games while Zion Williamson has missed 15 and counting. Yet the Pelicans have been entrenched near the top of the standings all season and currently sit in third place.
Three Phoenix starters, Devin Booker, Chris Paul & Cam Booker, have all missed significant time. If the season ended today the Suns, which had the NBA’s best record last season but now sit in 12th place, just 1/2 game ahead of the Lakers, would not even qualify for the playoffs.
Star players for many other teams have had to sit in street clothes on the bench. Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins have missed their share of games for the defending champion Warriors. Ditto Karl-Anthony Towns for Minnesota, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George for the Clippers and Damian Lillard for the Trailblazers. Meanwhile, Dallas holds its breath every time MVP candidate Luka Doncic takes another tumble.
In AD’s absence, James has stepped up remarkably well. But the minutes the 38-year-old has been forced to play have crept steadily higher. He’s already missed 10 games and, based on his recent history, he may well miss another 10-15 during the season’s second half.
Patrick Beverley has also sat out 9 games so far, about half of what he can be expected to miss. But since he is at or near career lows in many offensive categories, especially three-point percentage (33%) and scoring (5.8 ppg), that might not be a bad thing.
The Lakers’ rookie head coach, Darvin Ham, has done a good job keeping all the players on the roster ready. But his inexperience has cost the team here and there. An obvious example was his inexplicable refusal to call a timeout to set up a play in the waning seconds of the Lakers’ one-point loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. How Ham handles situations like that during the season’s second half could be an important factor to the team’s success.
The Lakers aren’t the only team hoping for the return of their star player(s). Whichever team gets the most healthy should show the most dramatic improvement in its won-loss records. So it’s at least possible that multiple teams with better-balanced rosters and more experienced coaches leave the Lakers in the dust.
One of the biggest unknowns in predicting the Lakers’ second half is whether or not the front office makes any trades. Speculation has been running rampant about what they could or should do to make improvements.
However, offering scraps such as Beverley or Kendrick Nunn or even Russell Westbrook or Dennis Schroder is likely insufficient to bring back enough help to win a title. So GM Rob Pelinka and company will probably hold onto the few first-round draft picks that the team still has and look for help at the margins, most especially a wing player with size who can shoot.
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Your choice of viewpoints probably depends on whether you are a glass-half-full or half-empty fan. The best guess here is somewhat in the middle: Davis returns to help the Lakers win enough games to move the team to 8th or 9th place and qualify for the “play-in tournament”.