Austin Reaves’ Lakers future is tied to James Harden’s free agency decision

The biggest storyline surrounding the Los Angeles Lakers this offseason is Austin Reaves and his restricted free agency. Reaves really came into his own during the 2022-23 season and became a key player to watch in a thin free-agent class.

Perhaps the biggest name in the free-agent class this summer is former MVP James Harden. While Harden is no longer in his prime, his decision in free agency will shape the direction of multiple NBA teams.

It has been speculated for a long time that Harden will return to the Houston Rockets in what will likely be the last chapter of his career. However, the Rockets reportedly don’t want to give Harden a max contract, opening the door for him to sign elsewhere.

If Harden does sign elsewhere it could have a massive impact on the Lakers as it may lead the Rockets to instead turn their focus toward Reaves. According to Michael Scotto of Hoops Hype, Reaves is a contingency plan that the Rockets have in place.

"“Should Harden not come to Houston, the Rockets are expected to have interest in Lakers restricted free agent Austin Reaves, I’m told.”"

Rockets could steal Austin Reaves from Lakers if James Harden signs elsewhere

Reaves is a restricted free agent this offseason and while that typically gives his current team a huge advantage, that is not totally the case in Reaves’ situation.

Los Angeles can offer Reaves a four-year, $50.8 million contract and can match any contract above that if he signs an offer sheet with another team. However, since LA would be over the cap, they would not get the average cap hit of Reaves’ contract (like teams under the cap would). Instead, they would have to take his cap hit year-by-year.

For example, if Reaves signs a four-year, $80 million contract with the Rockets then Houston would be able to take a $20 million cap hit in each of the four years. If the Lakers matched that deal then Reaves would have a cap hit of just under $12 million in his first two years and then it would inflate to over $27 million in years three and four.

That could create complications down the line, especially with LA needing to find the next superstar to replace LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis.

So while the Lakers could theoretically match any deal, the financial implications may turn the team away. It would not be the first time that this front office let a fan favorite walk when they could have re-signed him. It is unfortunate to admit, but Reaves really could be the next Alex Caruso.

Thus, if Lakers fans should be rooting for anything this offseason it should be for Harden to re-sign with Houston. Not only does that put him on a bad team but it removes a potential Reaves suitor from the fold.