Stop me if you've heard this before: The Los Angeles Lakers are in the market for an upgrade at center. It's been the narrative following the organization since the early stages of the 2023-24 season, thus inevitavly carrying into 2024-25.
The player at the heart of rumors and speculation pieces alike in 2024-25 has been Washington Wizards center Jonas Valanciunas.
Valanciunas was linked to the Lakers as a target in free agency, but ultimately opted to sign a three-year, $30.295 million deal with the Wizards. He's been mentioned as an ideal trade option for Los Angeles ever since, with LeBron James even providing his seal of approval.
The latest development on that front may have slammed the door shut on their interest, however, as Michael Wright of ESPN relayed that Washington's asking price may be out of Los Angeles' ideal range.
"It has been rumored that Los Angeles is hoping to land the Washington Wizards' Jonas Valanciunas as it still holds a couple of second-round picks as assets. But Washington's asking price might be too rich for the Lakers, which will surely have competition for Valanciunas' services."
The question is: If the asking price has increased and the Lakers would need to pay more than they'd previously wanted to, would it still be worth it?
Acknowledging the risk
For as intriguing as Valanciunas' production and general value as a scorer and rebounder would be, there are risks involved in a potential trade. He's 32 years of age, has negative marks as a primary defender, and Washington may require the Lakers to part with a first-round draft pick to get a trade done.
The last part is more speculation than fact, but as the trade deadline nears, the sellers typically emerge as the teams with the most leverage.
Perhaps the Lakers will be able to talk the Wizards down from that potential price point and rely instead on future second-round selections. They could include Jalen Hood-Schifino for upside purposes, and add pieces to make the finances align from there.
The harsh reality, however, is that they're already due to be without first-round draft picks in 2025 and 2027—a trend they should be looking to buck rather than continue.
Equally brutal truths, however, are that Anthony Davis is 31, James is 40, and the Lakers lack a distinguishable answer to their unavoidable lack of quality depth at center. Furthermore, Davis requested help at the position in both 2023 and 2024, and James himself named Valanciunas as an ideal choice.
It's safe to say the five-time NBA champion was on to something, as Valanciunas has the qualities of a perfect fit based on the Lakers' needs.
Jonas Valanciunas addresses too many Lakers flaws to write him off
Evaluating Valanciunas is a process that must first begin with acknowledging what Los Angeles needs from him. He has flaws to discuss, of course, but there's an undeniable alignment between his strengths and the Lakers' greatest weaknesses.
That list of issues can be summarized with the following rankings: No. 24 in second-chance points scored, No. 26 in second-chance points allowed, and No. 29 in bench scoring.
Starting with the Lakers' inability to prevent opponents from creating second chances, Valanciunas is one of the best defensive rebounders in the NBA. Among players who have appeared in at least 20 games, he's No. 6 in the Association in defensive rebounding percentage.
Valanciunas is also 15th in offensive rebounding percentage, which would help Los Angeles address its issues on the other end of the floor.
Furthermore, Valanciunas is currently averaging 11.9 points and 2.3 assists in just 20.9 minutes per game. That translates to 21.4 points and 4.5 assists per 36 minutes, which pairs nicely with his marks of 14.5 rebounds, 4.4 offensive boards, 1.3 blocks, and 0.9 steals on that same basis.
For what it's worth: The only Lakers averaging more points per 36 minutes than Valanciunas are Davis and James, while only James and Austin Reaves are distributing more assists.
If the Lakers believe they can position Valanciunas to make a positive impact, then an elevated price point could create a necessary evil if Davis is truly the franchise player.