Who doesn't love crunching numbers? Well, Jonathan Kuminga and his agent Aaron Turner, apparently.
Kuminga and his rep came to the conclusion that signing with the Minnesota Timberwolves over the Los Angeles Lakers was the better decision for the free agent forward. Fair enough. However, Shams Charania's reporting on what led to that choice is the part that made no sense.
"Kuminga chose the Timberwolves over offers from the Lakers, Bulls and Trail Blazers -- bypassing a similar starting role and $12M-plus annually over three years in L.A. to land in Minnesota for a shorter-term deal and an ability to have more control of his future, sources said."
Let us do the math here.
Jonathan Kuminga surrendered security for very little financial upside
$36 million over three years with the Lakers is solid money. Perhaps there was a point ahead of the offseason where Kuminga thought he could earn more than that. However, those finances are hardly anything to scoff at.
What does the best-case scenario for Kuminga's gamble in Minnesota look like?
Charania reported a two-year, $13 million agreement, including a player option, for the deal with the Timberwolves. Spotrac estimated Kuminga will be earning around $6.1 million in 2026-27.
Assuming a successful upcoming campaign for him, that would mean the player option gets declined and the young forward reenters the free agent pool in 2027. What does the market look like for him then?
It is hard to imagine Kuminga's role in Minnesota sets him up for anything more than the nontaxpayer midlevel exception in the summer of 2027. Assuming he can get that full MLE from a team in free agency would be generous, but let us grant him the benefit of the doubt.
If next season's nontaxpayer midlevel exception comes in at around $16 million, that does not look favorably against the three-year deal for $36 million Kuminga could have taken from the Lakers. Over those same three seasons, he would only earn roughly $2 million more with his current path.
This is all just from the contract alone. Remember, Los Angeles is one of the best places in the NBA to do business off the court. Brand deals and endorsements could have bridged the financial gap while also giving him far more security in the immediate future than the deal with Minnesota.
All in all, yikes.
Kuminga and Turner are certainly rolling the dice on the potential bag that could be had with the path they opted for this summer. That is especially true if their plan goes sideways and JK is once again picking from offers that are less than what he was expecting. Good luck is all that can be said here. They are going to need it.
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