The Los Angeles Lakers committed to paying Walker Kessler as if he's already an All-Star-level talent, believing he can reach that status without knowing for sure. Therein lies the problem they created, along with what they gave up to get him in the sign-and-trade with the Jazz, though it could age in their favor.
On Tuesday's episode of the Third Apron podcast with Yossi Gozlan, Sam Quinn put into perspective just how much LA bet on Kessler. He pointed out that the 25-year-old has the 10th-highest average annual salary among centers in the NBA, and the nine players ahead of him have all been named All-Stars before. He went on to say:
"You're paying him at the absolute top of the market, and maybe that's worthwhile. He is young; there is more upside. He's never played on a good team. Maybe playing on a good team is going to unlock stuff in his game that we haven't quite seen before. You're making a franchise-altering bet here."
Clearly, the Lakers thought it was worthwhile. They needed a true starting center, but they also needed to give Luka Dončić what he had asked for.
Los Angeles gave up more than it would've liked for Kessler and then paid him more than he deserves (at least based on what we've seen out of him thus far) with his four-year, $130 million deal. If it works out and he turns into an All-Star-caliber talent, great! If not, it will be hard for the Lakers to dig themselves out of that hole.
Lakers paid Walker Kessler based on the player they think he can be
To point out the obvious, you're not going to get by with getting a restricted free agent on a steal of a deal. It doesn't work that way, especially not when you're negotiating with an organization that employs Danny Ainge and his son, Austin. The Lakers already knew that they'd have to "overpay" to get Kessler or Jalen Duren.
Los Angeles is looking to the future, envisioning the kind of player that Kessler will be over the next four years, and he could live up to those expectations.
For him to reach All-Star status, he has to be more than one of the best rim protectors in the league, a title he already holds. Kessler needs to do more on offense than set screens for Dončić, throw down lobs, and generate extra possessions with his offensive rebounds, though those things are, obviously, very important.
It'd be unreasonable to expect Kessler to evolve into a true stretch five in his first season in purple and gold, though he already said that he and JJ Redick talked about expanding that part of his game. As exciting as that is, it'd be a good first step for him to put more of an emphasis on creating open looks for himself. And, of course, Dončić will create open looks for his new teammate.
Every little thing Kessler does with the Lakers will be dissected and analyzed, not just because he's now in LA playing for one of the most storied franchises in all of sports, but because of the commitment the team made to him. He'll have to get used to dealing with far more pressure than he dealt with when he was in Utah.
Don't expect him to make every cent of his salary on opening night. You also can't expect him to make an All-Star team next year, either, though something along those lines needs to be in the cards for Kessler sooner rather than later, based on his salary. If not, the Lakers will have a much larger problem on their hands.
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