It was only a month ago that the Los Angeles Lakers looked like this unstoppable force set for a lengthy playoff run. But after Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves went down in the span of one game, they are entering the postseason heavily undermanned.
41-year-old LeBron James is now leading the way with a supporting cast filled by role players. The question is, can the Lakers survive round one against a defensive juggernaut in the Houston Rockets?
When you look at the way the Kevin Durant-led Houston Rockets are built, they have size, athleticism, grit, and toughness. Those are all things that, in theory, translate to playoff basketball. It could pose major problems for a Lakers team that is already going to struggle with self-creation outside of LeBron.
Houston's tough, hard-nosed physical style is perfect for the postseason and makes the transition from the regular to playoffs much smoother. However, what translates no matter the level or stage is 3-point shooting, and that margin is the Lakers' key to a round one win over Houston.
If the Lakers outshoot the Rockets, they win the series
Houston has LA outmatched defensively, currently has more star power, is stronger on the glass, and has a more balanced attack overall. Where they can’t come close to matching LA is from beyond the arc, as all season, Houston has been shot out of games by opponents due to a lack of personnel and attempts.
The Rockets don't really have a sniper or 3-point specialist, as the majority of their perimeter offense comes through Durant, Reed Sheppard, and Jabari Smith Jr. This season, the Rockets attempted the third fewest 3-pointers and converted the fifth fewest per game.
The lack of a true specialist is the biggest red flag for the Rockets roster, and luckily for LA, they have an overwhelming number of snipers prepared to help the Lakers dominate the 3-point line.
Rui Hachimura, Nick Smith Jr., Bronny James, and a reemerging Dalton Knecht give the Lakers several players available for postseason basketball who are shooting above 40 percent from deep over LA's last five games. Luke Kennard has also been a machine on the whole of the season.
Plus, It's worth noting that during the last five, those first four have attempted at least 2.3 triples. If this shooting can carry over into the playoffs, especially from Kennard and Hachimura, this first-round matchup could tilt heavily in LA’s favor.
With the 3-point shooting appearing to be the deciding factor in whether LA can advance through round one without Luka and AR, the Lakers are in great hands with JJ Redick calling the shots. Redick crafted a 15-year NBA career by creating separation and manipulating defenses to get open off the catch-and-shoot. Now he gets to focus on creating those scenarios from the sidelines.
The Lakers have the third-highest 3-point percentage in the final five games of the regular season, and even LeBron shot 37.5 percent from distance in his last five. Having that type of red-hot shooting entering a series where the Rockets' biggest weakness is floor spacing gives the Lakers an obvious gameplan for round one.
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