The Los Angeles Lakers have a growing interest in rising Denver Nuggets star Peyton Watson. Los Angeles was speculatively linked to Watson as an ideal potential target in free agency, but fuel was added to the fire when Dave McMenamin of ESPN reported that the front office has expressed interest in signing the breakout wing.
Unfortunately, there's only one way for Los Angeles to be able to afford Watson: To embrace the possibility of an overpay in the hope that Denver's cramped finances facilitate a deal.
Watson will be a restricted free agent this summer, meaning the Nuggets will reserve the right to match any offer sheet he receives. As such, even if the Lakers submit a max-level offer and Watson aspires to accept it, Denver will have the opportunity to overrule said proceedings and bring him back on identical or exceeding terms.
The one truth that's working in Los Angeles' favor, however, is that Denver will be just $3,660,572 away from the second apron at the start of the 2026 offseason.
The Nuggets can cut salary and create flexibility for themselves, of course, and they'll likely attempt to do so in an effort to re-sign Watson. What the Lakers can do to improve their odds of landing the SoCal native, however, is extend an aggressive offer that tests how far into the second apron Denver is truly willing to go.
With second apron penalties such as the inability to aggregate salaries in trades, the Nuggets may opt to let Watson walk in such a scenario. The question is: Would it be worth it?
Lakers would need to pay Peyton Watson enough for Nuggets to prioritize second apron
Watson, 23, is the epitome of long-term development. He averaged just 3.3 points per game during his lone collegiate campaign at UCLA, didn't exceed 20 minutes per game until his third year in the NBA, and shot just 32.8 percent from beyond the arc across those three seasons.
There were early signs of a leap being made during his third season, however, as he played 24.4 minutes per game and shot 35.3 percent from beyond the arc.
The long road to a breakout took a sudden turn when Christian Braun went down with an injury early in the 2025-26 season. With the Nuggets in need of starting-caliber minutes, Watson stepped up to the plate and proved to be an elite defensive player and high-level scoring threat.
Compounded by the fact that he's become one of the most reliable three-point shooters in the NBA, Watson has emerged as a dream offseason target for the Lakers.
Peyton Watson is elite on defense, a rising star on offense
Watson is currently averaging 14.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.0 steal, and 1.5 three-point field goals made in 30.7 minutes per game. He's shooting the lights out at 49.6 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from beyond the arc.
Watson has reached an even higher level since Braun went down in mid-November, averaging 18.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.0 steal, and 1.9 three-point field goals made on .504/.435/.728 shooting across 36 games played.
As if that weren't intriguing enough, Watson has become an absolute force of nature on defense. According to Basketball Index, he ranks in the 98th percentile in perimeter isolation defense, the 96th percentile in off-ball chaser defense, and the 77th percentile in ball screen navigation.
Watson also ranks in the 92nd percentile in post defense, the 89th percentile in screener rim defense, and the 80th percentile in rim protection, per Basketball Index.
Lakers must answer: How much is too much for Peyton Watson?
With all of this established, Watson is a dream paper fit for a Lakers roster that desperately needs defense, athleticism, shooting, and an infusion of youth. It's even more intriguing to consider that he ranks in the 90th percentile in movement points per 75 possessions, which measures a player's off-ball activity on offense, per Basketball Index.
By comparison, the Lakers rank dead last in distance traveled on the offensive end of the floor and have been heavily scrutinized for their stationary approach to scoring.
One simply can't help but wonder: For a player who has never put together a full season like this before, how much would constitute an overpay? It's difficult to put a number on it, but that's the exact job the Lakers' front office will need to do.
They need to toe the razor-thin line between paying enough that the Nuggets will be unable to justify matching their offer sheet and avoiding the type of contract that could drastically impact the trajectory of the Luka Doncic era if it doesn't pan out.
The unfortunate truth is that the only chance the Lakers will have of signing Watson will be to play that risky game and hope to avoid disaster.