The Los Angeles Lakers will have every reason to play it safe at the 2026 NBA Draft. For one, Los Angeles will be without a first-round draft pick in 2027 and 2029. To make matters worse, the only under-25 player who consistently cracked the rotation in 2025-26 will be an unrestricted free agent in 2027. Suffice it to say, the Lakers need their first-round selection to pan out.
Though many will thus encourage the Lakers to play it safe and select a rookie who can potentially contribute immediately, there must be some type of emphasis placed on long-term potential.
It's easy to point to a player with a translatable skill and proclaim that they're guaranteed to succeed in the NBA. The reality of the sport, however, is that they'll need to offer more than just that skill to play meaningful minutes, particularly on a Lakers side that's hoping to compete with the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.
A top-tier shot-blocker or three-point shooter would certainly be welcome, for instance, but it simply can't be guaranteed that they'll actually become high-level professional players just because of one intriguing ability.
With this in mind, the best option for the Lakers is too stop boxing themselves into what's safe and instead prioritize properly scouting the talent they encounter and evaluating how they fit—both in short-term and long-term scenarios
Lakers can't buy the myth that "safe picks" are truly safe
Suppose the best players available at No. 25 include a three-point shooting specialist, a traditional big man, an athletic rim protector, and a defensive-minded wing. Each of those players will inevitably have pros and cons that need to be evaluated, both on and off the court.
The true differentiating factor, however, can't be deciding which player is safer—but instead who they believe truly fits what they're building best.
The best fit may ultimately be a player who has flaws, but has the work ethic and film to justify the belief that they can improve upon them. In contrast, the Lakers could make the decision that a specialist is what they need to bolster the rotation.
The Lakers simply can't overlook how important it is for the player they draft to have multi-season value—a need that could ultimately be best addressed with more of an upside pick.
Lakers need a player with long-term value, not just a short-term fix
In 2024, for instance, the Washington Wizards selected Kyshawn George at No. 24. In his second NBA season, George averaged 14.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.0 steal, and 0.9 blocks per game on .438/.381/.802 shooting. As a rookie, however, he shot at a clip of .372/.322/.826.
In 2023, the Utah Jazz selected Brice Sensabaugh at No. 28. Sensabaugh averaged 14.9 points and 2.2 three-point field goals made on .460/.367/.826 shooting during his third season, but shot .390/.296/.902 as a rookie.
In a perfect world, the Lakers would find a player who could both step up as a rookie and develop as their career continues. If they truly believe in a player's potential, however, they can't be afraid to take a chance on who they could become—even if that means potentially losing short-term value.
The Lakers aren't building for the 2026-27 season, but for a full era of greatness with Luka Doncic. That requires calculated risks, including with picks at the NBA Draft.
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