The Los Angeles Lakers absolutely swindled the Dallas Mavericks in the Luka Doncic trade. There is no debating the extent to which they robbed them. In doing so, though, the Lakers also made it harder for themselves to swing trades now, and over the offseason.
Because having Doncic nukes the value of their future draft picks.
The Lakers’ future with Luka Doncic is too bright for other teams
The Lakers can only deal up to one first-rounder pick at the moment: their 2031 selection. That number will climb to three over the offseason, at which time they can flip whomever they select in the 2026 draft, as well as their 2031 and 2033 picks.
Dangling one first-round pick should be enough, in theory, to start conversations for many of the targets being bandied about the rumor mill. And if the Lakers hoard their firsts until the summer, peddling a trio of selections could get them in the running for much spicier names.
Emphasis on “in theory.” And “could.”
Selling teams want to procure first-rounders with higher upside, particularly when they spill so far into the future. The Lakers’ draft selections carried that mystique this time last year. They no longer have it now.
Just look at where the Lakers are this season as proof. They have a less-than-perfect roster, and are still tracking toward a bottom-five draft pick. Sure, a lot can happen between now and 2031, the earliest the Lakers can currently convey a first-round pick. But at just 26, Doncic is not nearly deep enough into his prime to see Los Angeles’ fortunes going awry over the next half-decade or so.
Let’s say the Lakers deal their 2031 first-rounder before the deadline. That pick would convey after Doncic’s age-31 season. He will still be in the heart of his prime at that age.
Unless you think Los Angeles will suddenly fail to put any sort of competent talent whatsoever around him in the coming years, the odds that pick landing anywhere near the lottery is slim to none.
Luka may make it more difficult for the Lakers to trade for another big name
If the Lakers want to chase bigger fish, they are better off playing it safe at the trade deadline, and pursuing a splashier move over the summer. That is when their 2033 first-rounder comes into play, and other teams might convince themselves Doncic will be on the downswing entering what would be his age-33 season ahead of that draft.
At the same time, this completely discounts the Lakers’ willingness and ability to futz and fiddle in the years to come. Even with Austin Reaves coming up on free agency next summer (player option), the team could be ticketed for boatloads of flexibility at some point over the next couple of years. Free agency may not deliver marquee names for most franchises these days, but the Lakers are not most franchises.
Basically, so long as Doncic is wearing purple and gold, Los Angeles’ future draft picks won’t have nearly as much value as they did before. This is a good—even great—problem. But unless the Lakers stumble into another one-sided heist like the one that got them Doncic in the first place, it’s a potential problem all the same.