Two things can be true simultaneously. LeBron James just had a better playoffs than anyone expected he could still have at age 41. And at the same time, the last few weeks have not been kind to LeBron's chances of landing that last big payday next season.
The Los Angeles Lakers would love to have LeBron James retire in a Lakers jersey -- that has been Rob Pelinka's line all year. They would also really appreciate it if that retirement came in a month rather than a year, as they have major plans and machinations for how they can use the cap space they will have if they can clear LeBron's money from the books.
Perhaps LeBron proved to the Lakers in his first-round domination of the Houston Rockets that he still has enough in the tank to be worth bringing back. That he achieved that dominance by returning to his old ways of playing on-ball and conducting the offense does amplify the concerns of paying and playing three on-ball players in Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and James, but perhaps there is a way past it.
That way certainly doesn't involve paying LeBron the $52.6 million he earned this season, and ideally doesn't involve paying him half of that. The Lakers were not good enough to compete for a title this season, even with a healthy Luka Doncic, and half of the roster is going to hit free agency. How do the Lakers bring back key role players, upgrade at least three rotation spots, and still pay James like a star?
LeBron James could leave, but who is paying him?
That reality was likely to force LeBron James to look elsewhere in the NBA for that large payday. While it is possible that James is going to take a massive pay cut to sign with another team, it has always been most likely that the player who has pushed for his maximum salary each and every season for over a decade would want to do the same in what would probably be his final season.
Turning back the clock in the playoffs should have increased his market, but nearly everything that has happened around the league has decreased the teams and money that would be available to him.
The New York Knicks have had the most dominant start to the playoffs in franchise history and are the clear favorites to reach the NBA Finals. They aren't breaking that up for a 42-year-old, no matter the name on the back of his jersey.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are one win away from the Eastern Conference Finals, and they don't have the money to offer him a large deal. The Golden State Warriors did bring back Steve Kerr, but they seem poised for a bigger swing.
The Los Angeles Clippers could offer James a large salary to stay in LA, but they just landed the No. 5 pick in the NBA Draft Lottery and seem poised to enter a brief retooling. It's a similar reality for the Chicago Bulls, a big-market team that has the money but not the inclination to pay James this summer. And would he truly chase money and not a ring in his final year?
As summed up by the excellent Marc Stein in his Substack this weekend, there are no suitors with deep pockets who can offer James a max contract. Where does that leave him?
LeBron's future is unknown
Perhaps he returns to the Lakers at a significantly reduced number. Perhaps he signs with the Warriors on a discount, or the Cavaliers for the minimum. Each of those seems unlikely for various reasons, but what else is he going to do?
And if James cannot find the money he thinks he deserves, does that influence his decision to hang up the jersey?
Intrigue continues to swirl around LeBron James, and the Lakers will wait with everyone else for a hint of what he plans to do. But the dominant playoff series earning the greatest of all time another massive payday?
That ship has sailed. His golden parachute off the Lakers for a final chapter on his terms is not coming. What does that mean for LeBron?
Time will tell. And we will all be waiting.
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