If Luka Doncic hasn't won MVP yet, are we sure it's ever going to happen for him? Look what he's already done; in 2023-24, he averaged 33 / 9 / 9 and shot over 38% from the 3-point line. He finished No. 3 in MVP voting behind Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Certainly, those two guys were deserving (and continue to be deserving, as it looks like they will battle for the award pretty much every year).
But Doncic was never even given a chance in that race, and despite leading the hottest team in the NBA over the past few weeks, it seems like he's not getting a chance in this year's race, either. Luka has been sparkling in March (36 points per game) and he's getting some offhanded mentions in MVP discussions, but there's no real shot he wins it this year. Is Luka's inability to crack the upper echelon of MVP voting because his greatness is just assumed? Does it have to do with his style of play? His constant complaining?
I'm not sure, frankly. But with Jokic and SGA not showing any signs of slowing down and Victor Wembanyama wedging his way into MVP talks, there might not be a breakthrough for Luka in the cards unless Luka can somehow increase either his raw stats or start shooting, like 40% from the 3-point line. Not really a fair ask for a guy who's averaging 33 points per game and shooting over 10 3-pointers.
Luka Doncic might not have the right combo to beat Jokic and SGA
The volume is obviously there for Luka, but he might not have the combination of output, efficiency, and consistency that would allow him to overtake those two other guys
Plus, now Victor Wembanyama seems to legitimately be in the race — Stephen A. Smith is ready to vote him MVP, if that means anything to you — and it's hard to envision Wemby getting any worse in future years. Wemby's defensive floor is so much higher than Luka's (and Jokic's and SGA's, to be fair) that Luka will always be at a disadvantage on that side of the floor in any award talks.
Of course, Luka's offensive output is much higher than Wemby's at the moment — but it's nearly on par with Jokic's and SGA's. Thus, Luka will feasibly have to be much better than both Jokic and Shai on offense to get first-place votes over that duo, and at least passable on defense to stay in the conversation with Wemby.
At this point, it kind of looks like Luka is doomed to finish third or fourth in MVP voting for all of eternity. Things can change; but if leading the league in scoring on the No. 2 team in the West doesn't even put him in the conversation, Luka might have an impossible hill to climb.
Things can change! As long as the 65-game rule remains in place, weird results will become the norm in award season. But with two other all-time talents in front of him and another right on his tail, the path to an MVP is more of a treacherous climb.