The astonishing fact that critics continue to overlook with Lakers' title odds
The Los Angeles Lakers are entering the 2024-25 season with a rather cynical external outlook. Despite the presence of two All-NBA players who are fresh off of winning an Olympic gold medal, the Lakers are viewed as a potential playoff team that will fall well short of winning a championship.
For as understandable as that may be, the outside world seems to be overlooking a remarkable fact when labeling Los Angeles a pretender: It was reasonable depth away from contending in 2023-24.
That may sound like an outlandish claim, but the Lakers' 2023-24 season was a tale of two halves—or, more accurately, roughly a 60-40 split. For 59.8 percent of the games played last season, they were a below .500 team, producing a 24-25 record through 49 outings.
It's the reason Los Angeles ended up in the Play-In Tournament despite winning the inaugural NBA Cup and having two of the best players on the planet.
The final 33 games, or 40.2 percent of the regular season, produced significantly greater results. It uncoincidentally coincided with the decision to finally start the five best players on the team: Anthony Davis, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and D'Angelo Russell.
The results proved that the Lakers can contend with a healthy second unit—a luxury they weren't afforded in 2023-24.
The Lakers had the fifth-best record in the NBA after February 1
Over the course of that 33-game stretch, which started on February 1, the Lakers went 23-10 and ranked No. 3 in the NBA in offensive rating. In other words: They won one fewer game in 33 tries than they had in the 49 that preceded that sustained run of dominance.
Los Angeles wasn't just beating up on lottery-bound teams, either—it took down the likes of the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, and Oklahoma City Thunder.
The key to Los Angeles' success was Hachimura returning to the starting lineup in the second of those 33 games. The offense all but immediately clicked, with the Lakers overwhelming teams with their interior dominance and perimeter efficiency.
During the aforementioned timeframe, Los Angeles was No. 2 in the NBA in both three-point field goal percentage and points in the paint.
The end result was the Lakers producing the fifth-best winning percentage in the NBA after February 1. It secured victories over several contenders, including three of the four Conference Finalists, and overcame a 40-point game from Zion Williamson to emerge from the Play-In Tournament.
Unfortunately, the one flaw they couldn't overcome was what prevented it from defeating the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs: A surplus of injuries to the second unit.
Los Angeles' second unit was meant to be one of its strengths after extending Jarred Vanderbilt and adding postseason standout Gabe Vincent and super sub Christian Wood. Unfortunately, Vincent appeared in just 11 games last season, while Vanderbilt played 29 and Wood saw the court in 50.
Losing the best backup guard on the roster for 71 games was devastating, and being without the best perimeter defender and bench scorer for 53 and 32 games, respectively, wasn't any easier.
Come the postseason, that lack of depth proved disastrous. Vanderbilt and Wood missed the entire series, while Vincent looked like a shell of himself in the 13.8 minutes per game he played—thus resulting in the inevitable demise of the Lakers against the team that has their number.
The 4-1 gentleman's sweep rubbed salt in the wound, but it's worth noting that Los Angeles' starting five outscored Denver by 9.9 points per 100 possessions over the course of the series.
Entering the 2024-25 season, one can't help but wonder what this team might be capable of with a healthy second unit. The core five players proved strong enough to lead the team to a top-five winning percentage when they were all in the starting lineup, and sufficient depth could elevate that success.
With Max Christie and Dalton Knecht joining an ideally healthy core of role players, the Lakers will have a chance to realize their potential as an underrated true contender.