The Los Angeles Lakers invested the No. 17 overall selection in the 2024 NBA Draft in former Tennessee Volunteers superstar Dalton Knecht. It was a move that few expected to be possible, with Knecht widely projected as a top-10 pick.
Fate was in the Lakers' favor at the NBA Draft, however, and Knecht will now have an opportunity to make an instant impact within the rotation.
Los Angeles moved on from Taurean Prince this offseason, leaving a void in the rotation as far as depth at the 3-spot is concerned. Jarred Vanderbilt will ideally be healthy enough to play big minutes at forward off the bench, and Max Christie is penciled in as the backup 2, but the opportunity will exist for Knecht to see the court early and often.
In that scenario, the 23-year-old will be turned to for value that the bench players in 2023-24 simply couldn't consistently provide.
It's a significant burden for a first-year NBA player to carry, but Knecht looks to be up to the task. He's the reigning SEC Player of the Year, as well as one of the most prolific scorers in his class. He's also a tremendous three-point shooter.
The question is: What can the Lakers realistically expect from Knecht during his rookie season?
Realistic Dalton Knecht rookie season averages
Knecht finished the 2023-24 college basketball season with averages of 21.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 2.6 three-point field goals made per game. He shot 45.8 percent from the field, 39.7 percent from beyond the arc, and 77.2 percent at the free throw line.
In the process, he ranked No. 8 in the country and No. 1 in the SEC in scoring. He also had eight 30-point games and one 40-point eruption.
Expecting Knecht to translate those exact statistics to the NBA as a rookie would be irrational, but they offer insight into what he may provide. Starting with his jump shot, he'll be able to deliver value in an off-ball role as a quick player who can get himself open and knock down threes.
It's thus fair to expect an average of 1.6 three-point field goals made per game, which would've ranked sixth among the 2023-24 class of rookies—tied with New Orleans Pelicans wing Jordan Hawkins.
Hawkins is a solid comparison based on size and skill set, which could offer a solid foundation for rookie-year expectations. In 2023-24, Hawkins averaged 7.8 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.6 three-point field goals made on .382/.366/.838 shooting in 17.3 minutes per game.
Knecht should produce similar numbers, but rounded up to 22 minutes per game and provided with a slight boost for being more NBA-ready, the following statistics are established.
Projected 2023-24 Statistics: 22.0 MPG, 10.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 1.6 3PM/G, 4.3 3PA/G, .412/.368/.772
To clarify: That's setting the pace for 131 three-point field goals made on 356 attempts over the course of 82 games played. The question is: How might those statistics translate to winning?
Realistic impact on winning
The Lakers finished the 2023-24 NBA regular season in the bottom three in two key areas in which Knecht can help. The first, of course, is the fact that Los Angeles was No. 28 in the NBA in three-point field goal attempts—making a willing and able shooter a welcome addition.
At 4.3 three-point field goals attempted per game, Knecht's range would enable him to provide instant value to a team that needs to be more aggressive from beyond the arc.
The second area in which Knecht projects to help the Lakers is bench scoring. In 2023-24, Los Angeles' second unit ranked No. 28 in points per game, and healthy versions of Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent will need help to improve upon that figure.
Knecht should be able to assist in that regard as a player who not only thrives as a three-point shooter, but has the skill level and athleticism to create his own offense.
If the Lakers get Knecht out in transition, he should be able to provide plays above the rim to energize the crowd and pace the second unit offensively. He's also a tough and willful scorer who can attack off the bounce in isolation, play through contact, and get into the paint.
It's irrational to expect Knecht to dominate as he did in college, but he can still elevate the second unit with 10.2 points per game off the bench while shooting relatively efficiently from beyond the arc.