The Los Angeles Lakers entered the 2024-25 regular season with the expectation of mediocrity hanging over their heads. No one denied how talented the starting lineup is, but questions about JJ Redick's inexperience and the Lakers' health concerns overshadowed any form of general optimism.
After a polarizing offseason and an equally as divisive preseason, a question remains as far as projections are concerned: How many games can this team realistically win?
Understanding the future of the Lakers requires a thorough evaluation of the past. For instance: In 2023-24, the Lakers went 47-35 despite having Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent for a combined 40 games, and losing fellow key reserve Christian Wood for 32.
Los Angeles also endured a tumultuous season behind the scenes, with former head coach Darvin Ham losing the locker room and D'Angelo Russell facing omnipresent trade rumors.
It's also worth noting that Los Angeles' 47-win season was a tale of two teams wearing one jersey. One of those teams was 24-25 exiting January, while the other was 23-10, posting the fifth-best win percentage and the third-best offensive rating in the NBA, after February 1.
With a new head coach and a necessary change to the overall philosophy of how the team intends to play, one can't help but land on a number that's somewhere in between those two records.
Lakers record projection for 2024-25 season: 49-33
A 50-win effort is a bold projection that banks on the Lakers being able to remain healthy throughout the 2024-25 regular season. That requires at least some degree of risk, which accounts for the record projection landing at 49-33.
Los Angeles has the necessary talent to be one of the very best teams in the NBA, but due to fair concerns over injury histories, the team falls just shy of the 50-win mark.
It also factors in the 23-10 record that the Lakers amassed after February 1 setting the pace for 57.2 wins in an 82-game season. Meanwhile, its 24-25 mark from before February 1 translates to 40.2 wins. Adding those numbers together and then cutting the figure in half brings us to 48.5 wins.
Rounding up, the Lakers end up at a 49-win pace—with every opportunity to reveal which version of the 2023-24 team was legitimate.
Rival teams have altered their rosters and impact players have recovered from injuries since then, but it's worth noting that a 49-33 record would've made the Lakers the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in 2023-24. That would've depended on who would've won the tiebreak between Los Angeles and the Phoenix Suns.
Considering the Lakers were just two wins off the pace, it's far from a reach to say that a healthier and more cohesive unit could be in that same range in 2024-25.
It's also worth noting that Los Angeles taking its game to another level after February 1 transpired against a high level of competition. During that time, it defeated the likes of the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Throw in the fact that it was 20-21 through 41 games and 27-14 across the final 41, and the Lakers are a much better team than they've been given credit for.