Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers have just begun what both sides expect to be a long marriage. They hope to bring multiple championships to Los Angeles. Doncic hopes to be enshrined on the pantheon of the greatest stars of the most decorated franchise in NBA history.
And one day, he would like to leave to win a title for another team.
To be fair, that other team is Real Madrid, the Spanish powerhouse that signed him when he was 13 years old and helped to develop him into the versatile superstar that he is today. In a recent interview with Jason Gay of The Wall Street Journal, Doncic was direct about whether he would like to play for Madrid again and help them win another title: "For sure."
Without leaning on those two words too much, it does seem very possible that Doncic will consider returning to Real Madrid before he hangs up his sneakers for good. If so, such a move would be unusual, if not unprecedented, among international stars in the NBA. It could also blaze the trail for other stars to do the same.
There is a lot of time between now and then, of course. Doncic is just 26 years old and firmly in the prime of his career. A lot could change between now and then, from his desire to play in Spain once more to whether he is still on the Lakers. Doncic of all people should not assume that his current situation will stay the same.
Yet it is also very reasonable to think that Luka Doncic will play many seasons for the Lakers and then leave for Real Madrid at the end of his career. How long will Doncic play for? And when would it make sense for him to leave the Lakers?
Let's peer into the future and predict when Luka Doncic might leave Los Angeles and take his talents to central Spain.
When could Luka leave the Lakers?
Luka Doncic is currently playing next to a cyborg. At least, that's the best working explanation for how LeBron James remains a Top-15 player in the league (at worst) despite turning 40 years old last season. He has extended his career unlike any player before him.
That is almost certainly not going to be the case for Luka Doncic. He has already spoken to not playing into his 40s like LeBron. Few NBA players are able to sustain excellence that long, and Doncic likely doesn't have the same indestructible frame to carry him into his fifth decade.
Assuming a more normal age trajectory, therefore, if Doncic wants to play for Real Madrid when he still has something to offer, he is likely looking at a return in his late 30s at the latest.
Doncic and the Lakers just signed a new contract extension this summer, adding three years and $160.8 million to his current deal. Instead of reaching unrestricted free agency as early as 2026, he is now locked up through 2028, with a player option for the 2028-29 season.
NBA players are eligible to sign for 35 percent of the salary cap after their 10th season in the league, which Doncic will hit after 2027-28. That player option is strategically lined up for him to decline and sign a new maximum extension that will make him among the highest-paid players in the NBA.
Assuming that Doncic follows that path, he will likely tack on another four years to his new extension when the time comes. That would keep him under contract with the Lakers through 2031-32, which would be his age-32 season, and complete eight seasons in Los Angeles. That's likely too early for him to move back to Real Madrid.
Let's tack on a new extension, then; Doncic exercises another player option in 2031-32 and re-ups for another four years. That would propel him to 2034-35 and his age-35 season. This is now the range where Doncic will likely no longer be at the same level, especially if his chronic injuries continue to plague him, and where a soft landing for his career begins to make sense.
That is almost certainly 11 seasons with the Lakers before he begins to consider leaving the NBA. Doncic's comment may have been alarming, but it is in the distant future. For now, the Lakers will have their hands full putting a contender around Luka Doncic - and hoping he is up to the task of carrying them to another trophy.