Signing Josh Smith Would Be a Bad Move For The Lakers

This morning, the Detroit Pistons sent Josh Smith to the waiver wire. Since signing a four-year, $54-million deal in July, 2013, Smith’s career in Motor City has been nothing short of a travesty: he looks lost, isolated and despite his desire to be a group’s leader, the addition of Stan Van Gundy during the offseason has left him with a voice that nobody wants to hear.

Smith is expected to clear waivers by Christmas meaning that, for those who aren’t familiar with the process, he will be allowed to sign for any NBA team who expresses interest in his services. As nobody in their right mind will look to take him for his existing price whilst he is on the waiver wire in the coming few days, his cancerous salary looks to be a thing of the past.

So, he’s a once-perennial all-star that appears to be a product of an ill-chosen system in Detroit. He’s a versatile big man whose size to athletic skill ratio is far above the norm in the NBA. He has shown in the past that he can play defence and he has been a nightmare to defenders in the open court, when facing up and with his back to the basket.

My enhanced rhetoric lies. Josh Smith is not the answer to the Lakers’ woes. He could be an interesting gamble for a conference contender, but his home should not be in southern California, at least not playing in Purple and Gold, that is: here’s why.

Have you seen his shot charts?!

Just because you can shoot from all across the floor, that isn’t due reason to do so when and wherever you please. Smith has predominantly played in and around the paint this year with 61.9% of his attempted shots coming within 10 feet of the basket. Despite his heavy reliance on his post game and play in the paint, Smith has converted just 44.2% of his efforts in these zones.

Beyond 10 feet, his shooting stats really are sights for sore eyes. Despite attempting 112 shots from 10 feet to the 3-point line, Smith converts a measly 33% of these efforts.

Uglier still, his strangely enthusiastic approach to the three-ball has lead to him hitting just 9 out of his 37 attempts from beyond the arc.

These numbers aren’t anomalies, either. Whilst his efficiency at the rim was far higher last season, his heat map from outside of the paint was absolutely frozen. When not attacking the basket, he made an appalling 32.5% of his shots out of 932 efforts.

It’s hard to redeem these numbers. Whilst Smith’s agility and on-court versatility were once attributes to be admired, his trigger-happy attitude has been detrimental to a Pistons outfit that he never shaped himself around.

The Lakers aren’t exactly short of offence-driven forwards (Hill, Davis, Boozer….and Randle) and after a year and a half in Detroit, Smith’s defence has regressed to a “someone else will do it” level. This forward really isn’t what the Lakers need: not now, not ever.

There’s the issue of money.

Let’s get one thing straight: Josh Smith isn’t going to sign a one (or maybe even two) year deal with a team that is not going to make the playoffs in the foreseeable future. If the Lakers were to acquire Smith, we can be almost certain that the front office won’t be making the deal in the hopes of having a long-term hookup. Smith is now 29 and looking for one or two more deals that will boost his financial situation going into the end of his career. Both Smith and the Lakers are on different pages in regards to what they want from a potential deal, and that isn’t a great starting bargain.

Smith could link up with a playoff team for one or two years; he may even sign up to a weaker team for an extended period if they offered him the right sum. But if you think that the Lakers are going to blow a large portion of their cap flexibility – or what they will have during the coming offseason and after an inevitable deadline day trade involving Lin, Hill, Young or two/more of the above – that they’ve tried so desperately to preserve over the past few years on a player with a reputable ego and a lot to prove, you’re sorely mistaken.

Smith simply isn’t worth the hassle. Offering him a multi-year deal would be financial suicide and even if L.A. were to sign him with the hope of bolstering his value as a trade piece down the line, the move could backfire and leave the team with yet another weighty contract with which they receive more trouble than it was initially worth.

We can already see teams such as the Rockets and the Clippers emerging as contenders for his signature and that’s because they’re already in a position that is attractive to any player. The Lakers, on the other hand, are not, crippling their bartering role and reducing the likelihood of an agreement between the two parties being reached.

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What is his upside?

Hypothetical scenario 101: Smith signs for three years, returns to his late-Atlanta form and is a 16-8 guy. Would this be a win for the team? The Lakers still wouldn’t make the playoffs in a hotly contested western conference. The Lakers would still need to look towards the future with Smith being 32 at the end of his deal. Most importantly, Smith’s numbers would still be categorically empty as he wouldn’t re-sign with the team in 2017.

…and that’s if all goes according to plan.

Worst case scenario 101: Smith signs for three years, eats into the Lakers’ cap space, stops them from gathering lottery picks in 2015 and 2016, irritates every player around him with his boisterous attitude and halts the develop of young men around him.

With all things considered, that’ll be the reality of a deal between these two parties.

Even if all falls into place, what do you really want from Smith’s tenure in Los Angeles? For the pessimist, it would be a further sign that the team are treading water and living for the moment instead of looking towards the future; even for the optimist, it’s hard to see any purpose for an agreement except for him finding a home and paycheque for the next 36 months.

I’m categorically unaware as to what worth proponents of this deal see within an agreement between Smith and the Lakers. When the best case scenario looks as mediocre as this deal’s does, that usually isn’t a good sign of things to come.

So, yeah. No.

Smith can play basketball. During his brighter days in Atlanta, his list of ‘can dos’ was highly impressive and his collecting of 16/8 (+) per night playing alongside Al Horford was praiseworthy. But Josh Smith isn’t that man any longer. If a contender wishes to roll the dice on him then they could be in for a treat, but he could also be what he has been to Detroit: a long, tortuous headache that reminds us why sometimes numbers do lie.

Smith could be the man for the Rockets. He could be the man for the Clippers. However, right now, Josh Smith is not the man for the Los Angeles Lakers: he would hamper their cap flexibility, stop their development as a team in the long run, reduce the minutes of younger and more talented forwards and, most damning of all, be a further roadblock to a better and brighter future.

Sorry, Josh, but it’s a no from me.

Next: Should Kobe Bryant Be Taking The Last Shot?

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