Could Julius Randle Be a Bust?

Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Julius Randle (Kentucky) shakes hands with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number seven overall pick to the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Back in June, the Lakers made Kentucky forward, Julius Randle their 1st lottery draft pick since Andrew Bynum in 2005. For the Lakers, landing in the lottery was an obvious disappointment, but the ability to reload with some young, viable talent was also a necessity that had been put off for too long. The Lakers had a bad habit of trading away first round picks, and with changes to the CBA, the Lakers were unable to keep their championship core stocked with talent. As Mitch Kupchak stated, the Lakers’ expectations are still to win a championship. If that truly is the Lakers’ goal, they must be expecting huge things from the rookie Randle. From the summer league it was clear Randle has a wide array of skills and should be an able contributor throughout the season. But what are the chances that Julius Randle could be a bust?

First, lets look at the 7th overall pick from the past few drafts. Last season it was Ben McLemore, the year before Harrison Barnes, then Bismack Biyombo, Greg Monroe, Stephen Curry, and Eric Gordon. Those picks date back to 2008, but other drafts offer similar hauls. The 7th spot appears to be very hit or miss. Last season, McLemore, Barnes, Biyombo, and Gordon had disappointing seasons. Curry is clearly one of the top 10 players in the NBA, and Greg Monroe is a very promising young power forward. If nothing else, history suggests that Randle won’t be out of the league within a couple short seasons.

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Randle spent one season at Kentucky where he averaged 15 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, while shooting 50% from the field. Scoring is one metric that generally doesn’t translate well from college to the pros. Often times players far exceed their college output, while others (cough, Michael Beasley, cough) never live up to the heights they reached in college. Rebounding is perhaps the best translating stat from college to the pros, so expect Randle to be able to grab his share of boards. Shooting 50% is a positive, but it will be difficult for Randle to hit that mark immediately against the larger, more athletic NBA competition.

Perhaps the biggest issue for Randle could be playing time. Right now the Lakers front court consists of Carlos Boozer, Jordan Hill, Ed Davis, Ryan Kelly, and Robert Sacre. That’s a lot of bodies, all of whom have proven more in the NBA than Randle to this point. Boozer and Hill will be receiving the lion’s share of the playing time, with Ed Davis and Sacre certain to see minutes as well. Randle could find himself struggling to find minutes early, which could negatively impact the way he approaches the game.

Lastly, what role is there for Randle of this team? He isn’t going to be a starter or even a 6th man. When he comes in, will he be expected to take a back seat to Jeremy Lin or Nick Young? It’s very possible Randle will be given very limited chances to show his offensive prowess and be allowed to develop his game. This should be Lakers’ fans biggest fear – that Julius Randle isn’t allowed to develop, while other veterans are given larger opportunities for a team that isn’t heading in the right direction.

Expecting Randle to bust is just about as ridiculous as expecting him to become Rookie of the Year since he hasn’t even played a single preseason NBA game yet. I think Randle is more likely to become an above average player in the league than he is to bust, but given how poorly things have gone for the Lakers over the past 3 seasons, would it be that shocking the Randle turns out to be a bust?

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