The Kevin Love One Year Contract
Jan 4, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) shoots against the Dallas Mavericks in the second quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Kevin Love has a contract decision to make at the end of this year. He can opt-in and remain in Cleveland or he can opt-out and become a free agent.
Last year, Lebron James opted out of his contract and became a free agent. Carmelo Anthony opted out too. So did Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade who exercised their player’s options and ended their contracts early so they could make more money.
Two years ago, Dwight Howard did the opposite. He opted-in. His decision to do so became a referendum on his character and intelligence. It created a narrative he has yet to overcome: his inability to speak truth to power. By handing over his financial leverage to the Orlando Magic, Howard marginalized himself.
Kevin Love has one year left on his deal, one he signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Earlier this week, he told Cleveland.com he was not going to opt-out and he was happy in Cleveland. But, before Cleveland fans get all giddy and starry-eyed, remember that a couple of years ago Love told Timberwolves fans he would always stay in Minnesota. So believing what an athlete says is the definition of insanity. An athlete is only going to say what is best for them at the time. Right now, in the eye of the Cavaliers hurricane, Kevin Love is a company man.
But as Dwight Howard learned, opting-in makes zero financial sense. It takes away leverage. It realigns the power from Kevin Love to Dan Gilbert. In effect, he gives Dan Gilbert a discount. Why exactly would Kevin Love want to do that and who would advise him to?
Kobe Bryant and other athletes are forever preaching the sports business model and as much as fans hate to hear them dissect the money angle- the level of privilege makes fans cringe- it’s the truth. In business, you look out for yourself. Dan Gilbert, the billionaire, is looking out for himself. Why shouldn’t Kevin Love?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a mess right now. As expected, a coach with no NBA experience is in over his head. This was supposed to be a young team with talent that David Blatt could grow with as he learned on the job. But Lebron James dropping into his lap and Kevin Love coming in from Minnesota changed the calculus. That said, David Blatt has done a horrible job of identifying Kevin Love’s strength’s and weaknesses. For much of the season, during most games, Love looks lost. His role in the offense is a glorified Jodie Meeks, someone on the three point line waiting for the ball to come his way.
Sensitive to perception, Love is careful to negotiate his way through this season. He says the right things. But, staring him in the face is a door. The question is, does he want to open it?
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For those players who self-identify as businessmen, waiting until 2016 to sign a long term deal is mandatory. In 2016, the proceeds of the new NBA television deal trickles down to the salary cap which trickles down to individual players salaries. Salaries are expected to make a huge jump. Players making $18 million today may get a 30% raise. Over the lifetime of a four or five year deal that can potentially add $15-$20 million dollars to a contract.
So, Kevin Love, if he opts-out, is looking at a one year deal before the big payday. It is the sort of deal that makes perfect sense for the Lakers.
With everyone coming off the books next year except Kobe Bryant, Nick Young and Ed Davis, the Lakers have the flexibility to give Kevin Love a salary in the $16-$19 million dollar range. Because it would only be for one year, both sides would benefit. The Lakers would have an offensive player in the front court who scores and rebounds and can finish around the rim. And Kevin Love, because of his Los Angeles roots, would be adored.
Kevin Love has a lot of cache here and support. With his signing, even if it was for one year, depression over two dismal years would suddenly break off like morning fog. Many fans would rejoice. Strategically, it would continue the Lakers theme of flexibility and give them an additional player to dangle in the Kevin Durant 2016 Sweepstakes.
Dec 25, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) during the second half against the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena. Heat won 101-91. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
As for the business angle of it, Kevin Love and the one year contract makes the most financial sense. He would be maximizing his assets. In a free-market, his talents would be overvalued, thus, he would be overpaid. He would trade security for flexibility. The risk involved with a one year deal is tempered by history. How many NBA players have had an injury derail their financial future?
When Jimmy Butler of the Chicago Bulls refused a contract extension, he said, “I count on me.” Does Kevin Love have that sort of bravado and confidence to sign a one year deal and then reap the rewards in 2016?
Kevin Love is 26 years old and for much of his career criticism has always been a constant echo. First, he was too athletic and too slow and too fat to make an impact in the NBA (translation: he was too white). Then, he was ridiculed for his defense, a charge that is hard to refute. (Markieff Morris of the Phoenix Suns notched a career high being guarded by Kevin Love on Tuesday). Constantly, he is reminded of his NBA playoff drought, the only multiple All-Star who has never played past the regular season.
Yes, his negatives linger but his superlatives, 20+ points, 10+ rebounds and another decade of NBA basketball waiting for him, make him a prized commodity in the off-season.
His opt-out decision is his first big moment, his first real leap. Will he jump? Or, does he play the Dwight Howard I-want-the fans-to-not-hate-me card?