Is Tobias Harris On the Mitch Kupchak List?
Before the season started, the Orlando Magic offered Tobias Harris a contract extension which he rejected, delaying further negotiations to July 1, 2015 when he will become a restricted free agent. Both sides (player and management) indicate their affection towards one another, specifically reiterating they want to remain together over the long term. But, marriages fall apart over money details all of the time. Outsiders such as the Lakers can force the Magic’s hand by swooping in and signing Harris to an offer sheet that is either front-loaded or back-loaded, making it impossible for the Magic to match it.
Tobias Harris is 22 years old and was drafted by the Charlotte Bobcats in 2011. Mistakenly traded by Michael Jordan to Milwaukee, the absence of Harris left a small forward hole in the Bobcats lineup. Consider the Bobcats/Hornets small forwards since 2011: Derrick Brown and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Neither has averaged 30+ minutes a game or double figure scoring.
Jan 23, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) drives the ball during the third quarter against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Knicks won 113-106. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Harris is the 6th highest scorer of his draft class, behind Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Kemba Walker, Brandon Knight and Nikola Vukevic who were lottery picks. Harris is the best non-lottery pick of the 2011 draft class.
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Traded on draft night to Milwaukee, Harris wasn’t valued in Wisconsin. He was the fourth small forward in the rotation. Carlos Delfino, Mike Dunleavy and Stephan Jackson played in front of him. Four seasons later, Delfino and Jackson are no longer in the NBA. Dunleavy (Chicago Bulls) is injured. And Tobias Harris is playing 34 minutes a game, shooting 46% and averaging 17 points and 7 rebounds.
He is the prototypical small forward. He can score, he can drive to the rim, he can finish through traffic, he is athletic and explosive and the ball doesn’t die in his hands. He can give a team minutes at the power forward position. His weaknesses are he doesn’t get to the line, he is a mediocre mid-range shooter and his motor has been questioned.
The last Laker small forward with anything close to Harris’ skill set and intangibles was Trevor Ariza. But, Ariza never averaged 17 points and 6 rebounds a game. Wesley Johnson, the Lakers current small forward, is the second worst small forward in the Western Conference. Only Dante Cunningham (5 points, 4 rebounds) of the New Orleans Pelicans is less productive.
The athleticism and explosion of Tobias Harris, not to mention his offensive talent, would be a definite upgrade for the Lakers, bordering on a gift. But, if the Lakers make a run at Harris then what happens when Kevin Durant, the once-in-a-generation small forward, becomes available in 2016?
It is this sort of bad timing that has shrunk the market for Tobias Harris. The Lakers, Wizards, Knicks, Rockets and Mavericks will all have the capital to add Kevin Durant in 2016 and compete against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who by virtue of a five year deal, have the most money to offer Durant. The probability of Durant coming to Los Angeles hovers around 17%. With Durant being one of those swing at the fences type of players, the Lakers (and other teams with money to spend) may just pass on Harris and wait, even if the chances are low, on a Durant acquisition.
Or, the Lakers could win the Tobias Harris sweepstakes in 2015. They then could engineer a sign and trade, Harris for Durant in 2016, if Durant does decide he wants to come to Los Angeles. Either way, the small forward future of the Lakers would be covered for a decade.