Lakers Should Focus on the Small Forward Position

While there could be some surprises ahead, when the dust clears it is very likely that the Lakers’ starting lineup at the start of next season will include Jordan Clarkson and Kobe Bryant at guard, Julius Randle at power forward, and Jahlil Okafor at center. That is an intriguing group, albeit one that will take some time to grow together as a unit. The unknown is who will start at small forward. It will not be Wesley Johnson, who has been the starter the past two seasons. It will also not be the only other wing player on the roster last season, Nick Young. It is possible that either or both of these players could return but as part of the second unit only. While there are many interesting free agents in general this summer, the small forward position should be the primary focus of the Lakers’ attention.

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There is a possibility that the team could draft a wing player with the 27^th or 34^th picks in this summer’s draft. As Clarkson showed this past season, there are gems to be drafted in the second round if the front office is careful in performing its due diligence in the next three weeks leading up to the draft. Still, with three likely starters in Okafor, Randle and Clarkson, with Tarik Black almost a certainty to get key minutes in reserve, and with Jabari Brown in competition to win a back-up position at guard, management is likely to feel that counting on yet another rookie in a prominent role is too risky.

In the past, the team had the prestige and the money to get almost any free agent it set its sights on. Things have changed, however, and it is not all the Lakers’ fault. The way free agency is structured today good young players have strong financial incentive to re-sign with their current team who can offer them a longer guaranteed contract for more money. As a result, attracting big name free agents to leave and join the Lakers is a much harder proposition than in the past. It might prove to be close to impossible. Thus, the team is almost forced to focus more heavily on the draft than ever before. It is riskier for sure, and it takes longer to build a contending team that way, but one positive is that when you sign a rookie he is locked to you for a potential seven years at a modest salary.

Still, the Lakers are likely to make a major effort to try to sign a free agent small forward this summer. Unfortunately the top options like Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Kawai Leonard, and Tobias Harris are all restricted free agents meaning their team can match any offer they receive and retain their rights. It is a certainty that the Bulls, Warriors, Spurs, and Magic will do everything possible to retain their players. It is inconceivable that the Spurs would not match any offer for Leonard regardless of the amount. The Bulls and Warriors have younger and higher priced players already on the roster, and the only question is can they afford to match a max offer from the Lakers and stay within the salary cap? With the cap set to increase significantly in a year, it is hard to believe that either team would not match whatever price the Lakers were to offer.

Which brings us to Harris, who is in a slightly different category than the others. He is “restricted” and thus the Magic could match any offer presented by the Laker, but will they? Harris has four years of NBA experience but is still only 22. He has improved dramatically and this past season played at a high level on both ends of the court. He is only going to get better. Orlando will want to retain him for sure but the consensus is if the Lakers make a very high offer, say $15 million per season, Orlando might not take the bait. Harris is good but is he worth that much?

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It would be an upset if the team were able to snag one of these players but it is very likely they can make a max offer to only one of them so they will have to choose. They would prefer Butler or Leonard but the odds are better of getting Harris or Green. The guess is they will try for Butler unless they learn beforehand that they have no chance with him. As for Leonard, it is inconceivable that the aging Spurs would let him go at any price.

If the Lakers land none of these players – and the odds are that they won’t — there are a few solid unrestricted free agents they will consider. The names most prominently mentioned in recent weeks have been DeMarre Carroll of the Hawks and Khris Middleton of the Bucks. Although there has been more buzz for Carroll lately, he is 28 and Middleton is only 23. If the Lakers were serious contenders Carroll might make more sense since he is presumably in his prime. Since the team is rebuilding, however, Middleton is the player who can grow with the rest of the young roster and for that reason the team should focus on him.

In the end, if the Lakers are able to plug any of these names into the present hole at small forward, to start alongside Okafor, Randle, Bryant, and Clarkson, there will be a lot of interest and excitement for next season. The best guess is that the team will focus on the guard position with their 27 and 34^th selections as an insurance policy for when Bryant is injured again or retires.

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