Lakers Draft: Go Big or Go Small?

The two teams who played in the NBA finals, the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, have two of the better centers in the league. When the oft-injured Andrew Bogut was hurt early in the playoffs last season, the Warriors, as many predicted, were unable to overcome his loss. He managed to stay healthy this year, and the result was Golden State had a phenomenal regular season record and maneuvered its way to the finals with relative ease. When Anderson Varejao was lost to the team earlier this season it was a serious blow to the Cavaliers’ playoff chances. The mid-season trade for Timofey Mozgov was a brilliant move that paid big dividends, however, as Cleveland finished the year strong and literally cruised through the playoffs to the finals despite the absence of Kevin Love and later Kyrie Irving. In short, Bogut and Mozgov were thought to be important reasons why Golden State and Cleveland were representing their respective conferences in the NBA finals.

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So what does it mean that in a series that was tied, with the season on the line, the other night Mozgov played a total of nine minutes and Bogut did not play at all? Neither man was in foul trouble. Neither was injured. After falling behind early in the series Golden State decided to play “small ball” and some credit that decision with turning the series around in Golden State’s favor. Without Bogut in the line-up Cleveland has a decisive size advantage up front which it could try to exploit, but instead the decision was made to try to beat Golden State at its own game which meant Mozgov is mostly on the bench. How did it turn out? The Warriors are now the NBA champs.

Why is this significant? Next week the Los Angeles Lakers will exercise the second selection in the 2015 NBA draft. It is a crucial moment for the franchise. This pick could have a major impact on whether the team continues to flounder or whether it will be on a solid path towards becoming a contender again. For 50 years the conventional wisdom has been to take the “big man” if there is a dominant one available in the draft, and this year there are at least two. Everyone just assumed that Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns, in one order or the other, would be the first and second players chosen. Now, with the league trending towards dominant guards and wing players, many experts are wondering aloud if the Lakers and Minnesota would be doing the right thing by passing on the top point guards (De’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay) and small forwards (Justise Winslow and Stanley Johnson) in the draft.

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This is a serious issue with no clear answer, which means Mitch Kupchak faces a tough decision with a lot riding on making the right choice. Is “small ball” the latest fashion trend or is it here to stay? Are centers too slow to keep pace with the faster players or are Okafor and Towns the exception who can run the floor with anyone? Can size still beat speed if the size comes in the form of the right big men, centers who do more than just clog the lane and protect the rim, who are also adept at scoring? Is Golden State just exceptional or will other teams be able to successfully copy their blueprint? Many teams are expected to try since sports is entertainment and the entertainment industry has always been about imitation. If one doubts that premise just consider how many vampire movies and television programs were made after the success of Twilight.

Many of today’s best NBA centers do not possess a sophisticated offensive game. They are relied on almost exclusively to stop the other team from scoring. But is that just because today’s centers do not possess the skill to be prolific scorers? If they did, would it make a difference? Despite the fact that everyone is talking about defense, the name of the game is still to score more points than your opponent. Whether the final score is 126 to 124 or 85 to 83, does it really matter as long as your team comes out on top? Is it a coincidence that the centers who made the first and second team All-NBA squads this offseason, Marc Gasol and Pau Gasol, are the increasingly rare breed who do have refined offensive games? Then again, neither Memphis nor Chicago were playing in the finals.

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While there is no discernible answer, there is ample reason to pause to consider the question. No matter what he says (or does not say) publically, Kupchak must have wrestled with the fact that most teams are opting to go smaller and faster. Will that fact make a difference in who the Lakers ultimately draft next week? It may depend on just how confident the Lakers are that D’Angelo Russell is the next Stephen Curry or that Emmanuel Mudiay is the reincarnation of Russell Westbrook.

We will find out the evening of June 25 what the Lakers have concluded. The best guess is that we will see Okafor in a Lakers uniform next season. But for good reason it is not as certain as we all thought at one time.