The Lakers may have seven and possibly eight players on their roster next season who are rookies or in their second year. Based on early enthusiasm generated by the selection of D’Angelo Russell, Larry Nance, Jr., and Anthony Brown in the draft, the return of Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson, Tarek Black and Jabari Brown for their sophomore seasons, and the unexpected signing of undrafted but much heralded Robert Upshaw to their Summer League squad, many fans assumed the youth movement was in full swing and that all would play big minutes this next season. Immediately after the draft, many thought the starting line-up might include Russell and Clarkson at guard, Randle and Kobe Bryant at forward, and Black (or even Upshaw) at center.
Blue Man Hoop
Since that time, however, three things have happened. First, the young players underperformed in the Summer League leading to concerns about just how “NBA-Ready” they are at this time. Second, the Lakers signed veterans in Roy Hibbert, Brandon Bass, and Lou Williams, all of whom are solid additions even if their arrival didn’t generate huge excitement from the fans. Third, after reportedly attempting to trade them prior to the draft and again during free agency, the team apparently has decided to stick with Nick Young, Robert Sacre, and Ryan Kelly. These developments have made the future rotation at the start of next season unclear. The biggest question of all is who will be the starters this fall?
It is safe to say most fans want Randle, Russell and Clarkson to start but the front office may not have the courage to comply in light of how poorly the Summer League team fared. Afterwards we were reminded that there was little time to prepare for the games or for players to learn the system and get to know one another. That excuse was disingenuous because all the teams faced these same hurdles. It is a legitimate question to ask why the rookies on other teams played with greater confidence and more cohesion on both offense and defense. Further, unlike rosters that were filled with undrafted players and D-League participants, the Lakers featured four men – Clarkson, Black, Brown, and Randle – with real NBA experience (though in his defense Randle’s was extremely limited). Not only were these second year players on the squad, they played big minutes to the bitter end in a desperate attempt to gain the team a victory, and still it did not happen. The net result is that the confidence of the front office in the all-out youth movement might have been understandably shaken.
Another factor that impacts who will start next season is the coach. In this instance that means Byron Scott, who presumably will make the decision. Scott, like many rigid, old-school NBA coaches, is predisposed to playing veterans over younger players. Remember, though he was highly touted upon his arrival, Randle was relegated to the bench when the season started last year after Scott chose Carlos Boozer to start at power forward. While Scott takes credit for Clarkson’s success by touting the decision to bring him along slowly, would it really have hurt to play Clarkson more the first half of the season?
This is not to say the veterans will start by default. The new acquisitions cannot match the name-recognition or star power of those new players added this summer by the Clippers, who somehow, despite having no cap space, managed to sign former superstar Paul Pierce and the controversial but very talented Josh Smith and Lance Stephenson. Still, one could argue that Hibbert, Bass and Williams are better players than those who started for the Lakers last season (Boozer, Jeremy Lin, Wesley Johnson and Jordan Hill), and that they fit well within Scott’s conservative system. If they stay healthy and play to their potential they can be satisfactory starters and the team’s record would likely improve over that of a year ago. As starters, the veterans would probably achieve a somewhat better record than the younger players would generate were they to start.
Despite these arguments, if the Lakers are smart it is the younger players who will be featured next season both as starters and key reserves, regardless of the immediate outcome. While a starting line-up of Hibbert, Bass, Young, Bryant, and Williams might earn a few more wins, is that really important in a season in which the team will not make the playoffs either way? Here is the plain truth and it is not an exaggeration: The future of the franchise is dependent on Randle, Russell and Clarkson becoming NBA stars and at least two or three of the other rookies and second year players emerging as solid role players. If this happens the Lakers’ future is secure though it will take two or three more seasons of sub-par records for the good times to finally emerge. Conversely, if these players fail, the team’s future for the next five years, or longer, will be dismal.
The reason for this assessment is that unlike the past two years, where the team had the ability to draft five rookies who are counted on to reinvigorate the brand, they have no first round draft choices left to exercise in the foreseeable future. Further, they have no assets to trade in order to acquire first rounds picks or other valuable players, or to attract top tier free agents. In short, either Randle, Russell, Clarkson and others develop as hoped or the team’s fortunes are sunk for a long time. The sooner these players start and play big minutes together the sooner they will gain the experience necessary to succeed in the NBA, the sooner they will learn to play together as a unit, and the sooner we will know if they are capable of leading the team to future prominence. Anything else is a waste of precious time.
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In the end the Lakers must make a decision. If they elect to start the young players there will be growing pains and it may be ugly for a while. The team could lose a lot of games especially early in the season and it could lead to negativity and ridicule in the media. It will take courage and patience to feature the younger players, and after three miserable seasons, it is unknown how much courage and patience the front office has left. My guess is not much, which means they will play it safe and start off featuring the veterans as much as possible which serves no useful purpose.
It is always possible that some of the younger guys will make a strong showing in training camp which changes the mix. It is also possible (and I am predicting) that the team will make at least one more trade between now and October to obtain another solid veteran. They are keeping the 15th roster spot open for another veteran, instead of carrying through on the previously announced decision to sign Upshaw to a contract. It should be obvious to anyone with an ounce of intelligence that, while he may be a “project,” giving Upshaw a chance to play this season over Sacre is an infinitely smarter investment in the future. Yet the front offices’ recent back-peddling on the issue may signify that the Lakers are pulling back from the commitment to an all-out youth movement. Right now, if the season started tomorrow, it is likely that Hibbert, Bass, Williams, Young, Kelly, Sacre, and Bryant would be featured more prominently than they should at the expense of the younger players. This may result in a few more victories but at the price of stunting the development of the rookies and second year players upon whom the team’s future fortunes will rise or fall.