In 2012, a rookie by the name of Damian Lillard entered the NBA and promptly took the league by storm. Lillard had completed four years of college ball at little-known Weber State, where he attracted enough attention to be chosen sixth in the 2012 NBA draft at age 22.
No one was prepared for Lillard’s immediate impact. The buzz started when Lillard was MVP of the Summer League — he averaged 26.5 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. In his first regular season contest he scored 23 points and had 11 assists, only the third NBA player in history to achieve that kind of double-double in his first career game (the other two were Oscar Robertson and Isiah Thomas).
In one memorable game, Laker fans will remember the remarkable shootout Lillard had with Kobe Bryant – he matched Bryant basket-for-basket for three quarters and ended the contest with 38 points. Lillard capped off his first season by winning rookie-of-the-year honors. Even with Lillard’s incredible rookie season, however, Portland had a losing record and did not make the playoffs that year.
Blue Man Hoop
Lillard was not your typical first-year player. Few men in history exhibited his consistent, high level of play from day one. For most NBA rookies, even those who ultimately have great careers, the road is much more uneven. We all remember Bryant’s rocky rookie season, with enough exciting moments to show us his ceiling was high but with a great deal of frustration and many growing pains along the way.
Even for the best players, their first season is mostly a learning experience as they struggle to become accustom to the speed of the game, competing every night against the best players in the world, and enduring the rigors of a season that is three times as long as the average college schedule. Andrew Wiggins, the latest Rookie of the Year, was laregely invisible the first half of last season. After an up-and-down start he came on strong in the end, although his team still finished with the worst record in the league.
The truth is, it takes all but the rarest of superstars at least three seasons to start to show just how good they can be. A recent example is Anthony Davis, chosen No. 1 in the 2012 draft. When he left college after one year everyone knew he would become a force defensively but no one knew he would be such a gifted player on the offensive end. He was good from the beginning, but not good enough to win Rookie of the Year honors. Davis, however, has significantly improved each of the past three seasons to the point he is now considered one of the three or four best players in the NBA. It is no coincidence that he just made the playoffs for the first time this past year.
Another example is Kyrie Irving, drafted in 2011, who in his first three seasons was uneven but had plenty of highlight moments which tantalized us with his potential. Still, it was not until this past year, his fourth, that he proved he has become one of the league’s best point guards. Not coincidentally, he made the playoffs for the first time (of course, the addition of LeBron James did not hurt his chances).
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It is debatable whether D’Angelo Russell will ever prove to be the equal of the very gifted Lillard, Wiggins, Davis and Irving, players who are expected to be among the league’s very best players for the next decade. Nor does anyone know how rapidly (or slowly) Russell will develop. He did not look good in the Summer League, which raised red flags, but for the sake of this article I will assume he is going to have a long and successful NBA career.
In the short term, however, when Russell arrives in training camp in less than two months, it is unlikely that he will look much different from the player we saw this summer. From time to time he will dazzle us with a “glimpse” of what he might become, but he will struggle much of the time because nearly all rookies, even those who go on to become stars, struggle in the beginning.
Russell is 19 years old. Although the trend is for the best players to leave college after one year, the fact is there is a world of difference physically and emotionally between a 19-year-old in his first year and a 22-year-old rookie who played four years of college basketball. Further, in his one college season, Russell’s team did not make a deep run in the NCAA tournament so he did not get the valuable, extended playoff experience that will benefit those who did like Karl Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor.
Perhaps most important, Russell is not as quick or gifted athletically as most star players in today’s NBA. What these factors mean, in combination, is that it will take a while for the Lakers to nurture the other traits they believe Russell possesses that will make him a successful player.
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This raises the question of what the Lakers can realistically expect from Russell in his rookie season. No doubt they hoped he could step in right away as a starter, though few 19-year-olds are NBA-ready when their rookie season begins. When you draft a player No. 2, however, the expectations are high and the assumption is he is ready to contribute immediately.
What about Bryon Scott’s history of developing young players along slowly? When last season started, Julius Randle, at the time the Lakers’ highest draft choice in decades, was not a starter. Scott’s natural predilection would be for Russell to come off the bench at least at the beginning, although that would present a problem with the roster as it now exists. It would probably force Bryant to play guard rather than small forward.
Putting aside the fact that Bryant — aged 37 years and trying to return from three consecutive major injuries — no longer has the quickness to stay with top players like James Harden and Klay Thompson, the team does not have a small forward on the roster with any NBA experience (we already have no clue who will play small forward on nights when Bryant sits out, or if he gets hurt). If Russell does not start let’s just hope Scott doesn’t do to him what he did to Clarkson last year — Clarkson did not really play at all the first half of the season. The Lakers do not have the luxury of doing that with the draft’s No. 2 selection, nor is their roster deep enough to keep Russell on the bench for long.
Whether Russell starts when next season begins will depend on whether he is able to show right away in training camp that his Summer League performance was an anomaly and he is really a much better player. It is hard to believe, based on what we saw this summer, that Russell will be ready in just a few short months to be a starting NBA point guard playing against the likes of Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, John Wall, and Chris Paul. Thus, in a perfect world, it might be better for him to come off the bench at the beginning (but play regularly). Then, as he gets more comfortable and gains experience, the hope is he can become the starter by midseason. Either way, whether he starts or comes off the bench, everyone will have to be patient when it comes to Russell. He is not going to burst into the league in a blaze of immediate glory. His game is more subtle. He may prove to be a great player one day but it is going to take time.