Free Agency 2016: Never Too Early to Look Ahead

An equally compelling case could be made on how the Los Angeles Lakers fared during the 2015 free agency period.

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On one hand, the organization clearly struck out on persuading LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Monroe or DeAndre Jordan to come aboard.

On the other hand, the Lakers used their cap space to trade for defensive stalwart Roy Hibbert, and the transaction cost them a measly second round pick.

The team also quietly locked up the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Lou Williams, to a reasonable three-year, $21 million contract. Regardless of which side of the fence the team came out on, the Lakers off-season has come and gone.

That said, let’s take an early look at the 2016 free agency class and what it holds for the organization. Top-tier free agents include LeBron James and Kevin Durant. The odds of the Lakers signing either of them are about on par with Kobe Bryant winning the MVP award this season. Moving on.

The next tier of stars includes Mike Conley and Al Horford. They are both clearly All-Star caliber talents but by no means superstars. The Lakers would likely jump at the opportunity to lock up Conley despite D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson already on the roster. Given that Marc Gasol just signed a five-year, $110 million contract with the Memphis Grizzlies, it’s expected Conley follows suite, albeit for far less.

Nov 3, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Atlanta Hawks center Al Horford (15) puts up a hook shot over Los Angeles Lakers power forward Pau Gasol (16) during second half action at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Horford, on the other hand, seems much more likely to jump ship. The Atlanta Hawks re-signed Paul Millsap to a three-year, $58.9 million contract this off-season which only means more time for Horford at the center position despite power forward being a more natural fit for him.

Assuming the Lakers re-sign Hibbert to a reasonable contract, Horford would fit right in as the starting power forward with Julius Randle coming off the bench in a sixth man role the likes of Lamar Odom. This would allow the Lakers to play small, depending on the matchup, with Horford at the five and Randle at the four.

DeMar DeRozan, Chandler Parsons, Al Jefferson, Hassan Whiteside and Nicolas Batum round out the next tier of free agents. DeRozan by far makes the most sense for the Lakers given he’s a Los Angeles native.

DeRozan played his college ball at USC and went to Compton High School. He also appears to be close with Nick Young, for what that’s worth, and the two participated in the Drew League earlier this summer.

Furthermore, the 2014 NBA All-Star is still young (26) and improved each year, albeit incrementally. While his shooting percentages (43% when healthy) are nothing to brag about, there is no denying DeRozan’s ability to get to the rim and draw fouls. He averaged 7.7 free attempts the last two seasons and made 83 percent of them.

Derozan is a much improved passer, regularly setting up teammates (3.8 assists) for good shots due to his driving ability. Lastly, DeRozan has become a capable defender, evident by the Toronto Raptors overall defense suffering during the 22 games he missed last season.

Dec 8, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard Kobe Bryant (24) drives to the basket against Toronto Raptors shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (10) during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a drop-off talent wise with regards to the rest of the 2016 class. Players like Joakim Noah, Joe Johnson, Rajon Rondo, Brandon Jennings, Luol Deng, Jeff Green, and Eric Gordon round out the bunch.

What would be a realistic off-season for the Lakers in 2016?

Signing both Horford and DeRozan is a possibility, but those signings wouldn’t make the Lakers championship favorites. However, it would ostensibly put the team on track for Jim Buss‘ infamous competitive deadline, and that means reaching the 2017 Western Conference Finals.

Depending on the development of Clarkson and Russell, a potential starting lineup of Russell, Clarkson, DeRozan, Horford and Hibbert is good enough. Reaching the Conference Finals would certainly seem to be within the realm of possibility given a bench that consists of Randle, Williams, and Young, among others.

In sum, Lakers fans should temper their expectations for 2016, but there are players available that make a lot of sense for the team. Signing a couple of them could go a long way toward getting the franchise back to respectability, which the organization desperately needs following two abysmal seasons.

Next: Elgin Baylor: A Forgotten Legend

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