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NBA Draft 2016: Simulating Lakers’ Lottery Chances at End of February

By Cody Williams

Jan 30, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers forward Ben Simmons (25) defends against a shot by Oklahoma Sooners guard Buddy Hield (24) during the first half of a game at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 30, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers forward Ben Simmons (25) defends against a shot by Oklahoma Sooners guard Buddy Hield (24) during the first half of a game at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /
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Simulating and breaking down the Lakers’ chances in the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery to see if they keep their pick

The Los Angeles Lakers are taking strides forward down the home stretch of the 2015-16 season as Byron Scott has gotten past his stubborn streak and re-inserted rookie point guard D’Angelo Russell into the starting lineup. However, that transition hasn’t translated to much success as the Lakers have lost seven-straight and still sit with the second-best odds for the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery.

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However, the losses for the Lakers this season obviously bring about conflicting feelings for fans considering the fact that their first-round pick is owed to the Philadelphia 76ers if it falls outside of the top-3. Subsequently, the draft lottery is something that many fans think about on a daily basis—wondering whether or not the Ping Pong balls will fall in the Lakers’ favor.

Despite the Lakers losing, though, they’re having trouble “making up ground” on the Sixers for the worst record in the league. The Lakers have three more wins and one fewer loss than the 76ers on the season, thus slotting them in that No. 2 spot in the lottery as of Feb. 26.

As we’ve done before, it’s always good to see where things stand in regards to the lottery with such a valuable draft pick on the line—especially when talented prospects like Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are at stake. And while the odds of staying in the top-3 (55.8 percent) and getting the No. 1 pick (19.9 percent) haven’t changed as the Lakers have held with the second-worst record in the NBA, the way things shake out in the lottery are seemingly ever-shifting.

Subsequently, we again simulated the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery 100 times using the current standings thanks to the services of Tankathon to see what happens with the Lakers pick in the 2016 NBA Draft. Here are the results of this latest simulation at the end of February:

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This sim seems a bit more normalized than either of the first two that felt more or less like outliers. In the first simulation, the Lakers kept their pick 64 percent of the time. In the second simulation, that number dramatically dropped to 44 percent. While 51 percent is less than the boasted percentage of having the second-worst record, it’s closer to that 55.8 percent mark.

The other thing of note here is that this latest simulation features by far the highest percentage of simulations where the Lakers wound up with the No. 1 pick, though it does fall right at their odds of getting the top pick.

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Again, things are shifting constantly in regards to the NBA and the draft order and the lottery only further complicates any kinds of projections on the matter. As for now, though, the Lakers seem to be a coin-flip to keep their pick, at least according to these simulations.

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