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Los Angeles Lakers: Assessing Julius Randle’s value in 2018 free agency

By Jason Renner

DALLAS, TX - FEBRUARY 10: Julius Randle #30 of the Los Angeles Lakers leaves the game after fouling out against the Dallas Mavericks in the second half at American Airlines Center on February 10, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. The Mavericks won 130-123. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - FEBRUARY 10: Julius Randle #30 of the Los Angeles Lakers leaves the game after fouling out against the Dallas Mavericks in the second half at American Airlines Center on February 10, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. The Mavericks won 130-123. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) /
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Los Angeles Lakers power forward Julius Randle is heading into restricted free agency. Where does he fit into the offseason market?

With the 2018 NBA offseason approaching, Los Angeles Lakers forward Julius Randle is looking forward to cashing in on his payday. Randle’s play this season has made him an attractive free agent this summer.

The Lakers are primarily looking to sign two max-level free agents. If they strike-out there, they may turn to Randle as an option. Randle’s strong play has made his possible departure from L.A. a tough decision for the Lakers front office to handle.

Assessing his value in the market is important for Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka to consider. If they strike out on signing two max free agents, they could bring Randle back on a reasonable, short-term contract to still ensure future cap space.

Julius Randle has increased his production this season, showing he may actually fit into the Lakers rebuild. His first two seasons showed that he was an inconsistent player that didn’t fit the stretch-four mold. This season, he’s shown that despite his versatility, his bull-ball style offense can produce at a high level.

His season averages currently stand at 15. 2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists, per ESPN. Since being inserted back into the starting lineup, Randle has shown he can be a double-double machine. His averages since the start of February are 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists while shooting a solid 57.9 percent. Randle’s improvement begs the question: should the Lakers retain him this summer? If so, at what cost?

What Julius Randle could earn and what he will earn this offseason are two different questions. The influx of money that entered the league from the new TV deal two summers ago resulted in ridiculous contracts being given out to players of sub-par value. For example, Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng earning a combined $136 million from the Lakers. With many teams around the league financially committing to players with this new cap space, teams are still feeling the strain on their cap.

Randle may be worth as much as a player like Deng (four-years, $72 million). Though, the money isn’t out there this summer for a team to offer him a contract like this. Once the Lakers submit their qualifying offer for Randle at $5.6 million, which they will certainly do, he will become a restricted free agent. If the Lakers want to retain Randle beyond that point, they will need to match whatever offer sheet another team hands him.

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Teams with considerable cap space this summer that could offer Julius Randle a deal are few and far between. They include the Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, Chicago Bulls, Phoenix Suns and Brooklyn Nets.

Of these teams, only the Nets, Suns and Lakers are teams truly in need of Randle’s services, mostly his rebounding and scoring. The Bulls and 76ers each have a promising young forward already in Bobby Portis and Dario Saric, both who can stretch the floor and shoot from outside more reliably. Also, the Kings already have power forward Zach Randolph on the books for $12 million next season.

So what kind of offer could Randle expect from a team outside the Lakers? What should the Lakers be expecting to match?

Forwards with his build and skillset have demanded contracts in the $10-$15 million per year range. The King’s Zach Randolph signed last summer for two-years and $24 million. Also, the Timberwolves’ forward Taj Gibson similarly signed for two-years and $28 million.

Randle should demand a comparable contract this upcoming off-season. Although, in this price range, the Lakers will likely let Randle walk. Unless the Lakers only sign one max-level free agent, expect them to not match an offer sheet for Randle.

However, the possibility that Randle doesn’t even receive an offer sheet may also occur. With teams like the Nets and Suns being in a rebuild, they are unlikely to want to commit long-term money to mid-level players like Randle.

However, the Nets are known for free agency trickery. The Nets commonly send offer sheets simply to make the home team pay more than they intended just to retain a player.

They did this notably last summer when they offered Wizards guard Otto Porter Jr. four-years for $106 million. Eventually, the Wizards matched to keep Porter, but this was not what they originally intended to pay Porter. The Nets also offered Allen Crabbe a massive offer sheet as well the previous summer.

Next: 10 Greatest Free Agent Signings In Lakers History

Will teams try to pull a similar maneuver as the Nets with Julius Randle this summer? Will he receive a legitimate offer from a team in need of his services? Do the Lakers want to retain him to develop with their young core of Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma? If he continues his improved play down the stretch, expect the Lakers to heavily consider keeping him.

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