Can the Lakers have a bounce-back season in 2022-23?
By Ed Schrenzel
NBA training camps are about to open with regular season games starting October 18th. It’s hard to believe that merely two years ago, on October 11, 2020, the Los Angeles Lakers actually won the NBA Championship.
So much has changed since then. But now that LeBron James signed a contract extension, the one consistent theme is that the Lakers remain in win-now mode.
GM Rob Pelinka continues to do his best to assure that change is constant. For the fifth time in LeBron’s five Laker seasons, the team’s roster has been rebuilt. Of particular note:
- All the Lakers’ draft picks from 2014-19 are long gone. The list includes three players that became all-stars, Brandon Ingram, D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle, as well as several others who are now rotational NBA players, such as Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Clarkson, Ivica Zubac, Larry Nance Jr and Josh Hart.
- The entire supporting cast of the 2020 title team, including Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, Markieff Morris and Kuzma, have all been jettisoned.
- The team continues to operate a revolving door at center. The Lakers waved goodbye to JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard following the championship two years ago. A year later it was adios to Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell. Last season’s experiment with DeAndre Jordan and the returning Howard was short-lived. Now Pelinka has added a tandem pair of younger, more all-around bigs, Thomas Bryant and Damian Jones.
- Getting more youthful was the theme of free agency. Instead of last year’s aging veterans Trevor Ariza, Wayne Ellington and Rajon Rondo, the Lakers signed the much younger Lonnie Walker, Troy Brown and Juan Toscano-Anderson.
- To replace last season’s leading three-point shooters Malik Monk, Carmelo Anthony and Avery Bradley, Pelinka acquired… well, nobody really. Outside shooting looks like the Lakers’ biggest weakness this year. No player on the current roster has a career three-point percentage exceeding 36% other than Patrick Beverley, and he shot just 34% last season.
Can this Los Angeles Lakers team realistically be expected to contend for a title?
To answer that question, let’s look at how they’ve done since they signed LeBron James, whose teams had gone to the Finals the previous eight straight seasons, and how that affects this year’s outlook.
1. Team Performance the Past Four Seasons
- 2018-19: Lakers went 37-45 and didn’t qualify for the postseason
- 2019-20: Lakers went 52-19 and won the title. This was the “pandemic” season, when play was halted for 4 ½ months after the Lakers played 63 games.
- 2020-21: Lakers went 42-30, made the playoffs by winning the play-in game, then lost in the first round to Phoenix
- 2021-22: Lakers went 33-49 and didn’t qualify for the postseason
2. Impact of Injuries
It’s no secret that the Lakers roster is built on the backs of James and Anthony Davis. The two stars’ ability to stay on the court is vital to the team’s success.
- 2018-19: LeBron missed 27 games (Davis was not yet a Laker)
- 2019-20: James missed only 4 games and Davis just 9. Of course, the long rest allowed both LeBron and AD to be fresh for the playoffs, although all postseason games were played in the Orlando bubble, negating what would have been the Lakers’ homecourt advantage.
- 2020-21: LBJ missed 27 games while AD sat out 36, exactly half the season. And with the Lakers holding a 2-1 edge over Phoenix, Davis went down again in game 4 and missed the final two games entirely while James was clearly not 100%.
- 2021-22: In the Lakers’ disastrous season, LeBron missed 26 games and AD missed a whopping 42. (And of course, in response Pelinka fired Coach Frank Vogel).
Meanwhile, 34-year-old Beverley has missed at least 24 games in each of the past three seasons. And James will turn age 38 in December. It doesn’t take an actuary to conclude that once again, missed games will likely be the norm.
3. This Season’s Competition
On paper, the Lakers roster clearly looks to be only fourth best in the Pacific Division behind the Warriors, Suns and Clippers. And in the Western Conference, the Nuggets, behind two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, and the Grizzlies, led by Ja Morant, both appear to be stronger.
It seems likely that the Lakers will have to fight it out with the Mavericks, who feature all-world Luka Doncic, the Timberwolves, who added all-star Rudy Gobert, and the young Pelicans, who hope to have a healthy Zion Williamson, for sixth place.
When you consider the much-stronger Eastern Conference, where teams like Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia are all legitimate title threats, the chances of a Lakers championship in 2023 are even more diminished.
The Lakers might still trade Russell Westbrook at some point. But no matter what they do, an objective look at the roster doesn’t stimulate much optimism.
They failed to capitalize on an opportunity to create something special a year from now. Had LeBron James agreed to a reduced contract, say something like $10 million, the team could have used the extra money plus what they saved from Westbrook’s expiring contract to sign a first-rate free agent next summer.
But instead, the wealthiest player in NBA history declined to take a pay cut and will be paid nearly $47 million next season with a $50 million option for his age 40 season in 2023-24. Although the salary cap is expected to increase, the Lakers will be hard-pressed to add any legitimate stars.
The most likely outlook is that fans can anticipate an up-and-down season followed once again by a big roster turnover filled with decent but unspectacular players.