NBA Playoff Picture: Lakers’ projected finish is underwhelming

The NBA playoff picture is hectic right now, especially in the Western Conference. The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to climb up the Western Conference ladder while several teams swarm them with similar records.

The NBA Play-In Tournament makes things even more hectic as well. This allows two more teams a chance to extend their seasons but does not guarantee a playoff berth for the seventh and eighth seed. Those seeds have an advantage in the play-in but nothing is guaranteed.

A lot is going to change between now and the time the Lakers play the last game of the 2022-23 season. As it stands right now, LA is firmly in a position to at least extend its season.

Current NBA playoff picture:

Western Conference playoff picture:

1. 1. Denver Nuggets
   2. Memphis Grizzlies, 3.5 GB
   3. Sacramento Kings, 6 GB
   4. Phoenix Suns, 11 GB
   5. Los Angeles Clippers, 11.5 GB
   6. Minnesota Timberwolves, 12.5 GB
      Play-In Tournament teams
   7. Golden State Warriors, 12.5 GB
   8. New Orleans Pelicans, 13.0 GB
   9. Los Angeles Lakers, 14.0 GB
   10. Oklahoma City Thunder, 14.0 GB
       Play-In Tournament cut-off
   11. Dallas Mavericks, 14.5 GB
   12. Utah Jazz, 16 GB

The Portland Trail Blazers have officially shut down Damian Lillard, removing their names from the NBA playoff picture hat. If the season ended today, the Lakers would enter the Play-In Tournament and have to win two games in a row against the Thunder and then the loser of the Warriors and Pelicans.

Eastern Conference playoff picture: 

1. Milwaukee Bucks
2. Boston Celtics, 2 GB
3. Philadelphia 76ers, 5 GB
4. Cleveland Cavaliers, 6.5 GB
5. New York Knicks, 11.5 GB
6. Brooklyn Nets, 14 GB
   Play-In Tournament Teams
7. Miami Heat, 14 GB
8. Atlanta Hawks, 17 GB
9. Toronto Raptors, 17 GB
10. Chicago Bulls, 18 GB
    Play-In Tournament cut-off
11. Washington Wizards, 21 GB
12. Indiana Pacers, 21.5 GB

Unlike the Western Conference, the Eastern Conference is mostly set. The Nets and Heat are battling for the sixth seed while the Raptors are going to look to usurp the Hawks to become the eighth seed and get the advantages that come with that. Outside of that, it would be surprising if anything else changes.

Lakers won’t make much progress down the stretch according to projected NBA playoff picture

As mentioned, a lot of things can change from now to the end of the season in the Western Conference. The Lakers are arguably the team most in flux as there are nights that they look like legitimate contenders and other nights in which they look like a lottery team.

FiveThirtyEight is traditionally one of the most accurate projection outlets in the sport and fans might be a bit bummed out about their projections for how the season is going to finish.

Projected Western Conference playoff picture: 

1. Denver Nuggets, 56-26
2. Memphis Grizzlies, 52-30
3. Sacramento Kings, 48-34
4. Phoenix Suns, 44-38
5. Los Angeles Clippers, 43-39
6. Golden State Warriors, 43-39
   Play-In Tournament teams
7. Minnesota Timberwolves, 43-39
8. Los Angeles Lakers, 41-41
9. New Orleans Pelicans, 41-41
10. Oklahoma City Thunder, 41-41
    Play-In Tournament cut-off
11. Dallas Mavericks, 40-42
12. Utah Jazz, 37-45
13. Portland Trail Blazers, 34-48
14. San Antonio Spurs, 21-61
15. Houston Rockets, 20-62

FiveThirtyEight does not see the Western Conference playoff picture moving around much. They do project the Lakers to gain a game on the New Orleans Pelicans, which is significant.

This would put the Lakers in a three-way tie with the Pelicans and Thunder with a 41-41 record. Los Angeles would have the tiebreaker in this situation, making them the eighth seed instead of the ninth seed.

That is massive because of the extra opportunity that it would give the team to make the playoffs. So while these projections may not totally be promising, they do have something to be excited about.