The postseason is nearly upon us, and for the Los Angeles Lakers, their diminishing hopes of escaping the first round revolve entirely around LeBron James. LeBron is about to take on a humongous load for a Lakers team operating without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, which is why ESPN's Tim Bontemps recommended on Wednesday that LA sit James for the final three games of the regular season.
Bontemps also laid out the "fairly simple" plan that the Lakers must adopt for their first-round series against their likely opponent the Houston Rockets: "You give the ball to LeBron, you spread the floor with shooting, and for two weeks, you hope that he can set up open 3-point shooters ... and try to get it close (by) the end of the game where the Rockets have consistently been a very poor late-game execution team."
Lakers can beat the Rockets in a series by making the games close
The Rockets have a losing record (21-22) in clutch games this season (in which the margin is five points or less with five minutes to go). Houston's 22 losses in clutch games (entering Wednesday) was the most among playoff teams. Moreover, Houston's 17% turnover rate in the clutch is second-worst in the entire NBA behind only the Portland Trail Blazers.
In sum, the Rockets aren't good in close games. And while it's hard to arrive at a specific diagnosis for why Houston struggles in the clutch, the eye-test tells you that it's because they're just too predictable. It's Kevin Durant or nothing. Alperen Sengun hasn't taken the leap in clutch situations that Houston needs him to. With a 37-year-old Durant being the obvious place that the ball is going to with the clock winding down, opposing defenses can basically force anyone other than Durant to beat them.
The absence of Fred VanVleet is felt strongly during clutch time for Houston, as the Rockers aren't as organized as they would be with FVV operating as their point guard/coach on the floor.
Non-LeBron James Lakers players need to be locked in against Rockets
The Lakers will need LeBron to have an historically effective series to beat the Rockets, but a 41-year-old James can't do it alone. This isn't 2018 Bron. LA will need their shooters to hit shots at a high percentage, yes, but they'll also need guys like Rui Hachimura to step up their overall game. The Lakers will need their entire rotation to be operating at top capacity, as the margin for error will be much slimmer than normal.
If the short-handed Lakers are going to win this matchup, they'll need to do so in crunch time. But the 43 minutes leading up to crunch time will require a full team effort to keep things close. LeBron will be operating as the head of snake, of course, and Redick will have difficulty finding the right time to take James off the floor. If and only if the Lakers can make this series a bunch of close games, they can pull off the unthinkable and advance to the second round without their primary two offensive weapons.