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Lakers will only go as far as most unpredictable quality enables them to

The Lakers win when they shoot the three-ball well and lose when they don't. It's as simple as that.
Feb 26, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves (15) reacts against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Feb 26, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves (15) reacts against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Lakers will only go as far as their erratic three-point shooting enables them to. Other factors clearly must be considered when evaluating their potential, particularly in regard to the defensive quality they've displayed in recent weeks after a woeful start to the season.

The unfortunate truth about this Lakers team, however, is that they play a boom-or-bust offensive style that has placed an immeasurable burden on their three-point efficacy.

Los Angeles currently ranks No. 23 in the NBA in three-point field goals made and No. 17 in three-point field goal percentage. If nothing else, that implies that the Lakers' outside shooting is something it's been forced to work around rather than a strength it wields.

Los Angeles is 12-2 over its past 14 games, however, and has ranked No. 3 in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage and No. 15 in conversions during that time.

It's far from coincidental, as the purple and gold have been vastly superior when their outside shots have fallen in 2025-26. They play an ISO-heavy style that has them at No. 9 in isolation field goal attempts per game, and though they're remarkably efficient in that arena, they inevitably need to adequately space the floor for such an approach to sustainably prosper.

That much is proven by the fact that the Lakers are shooting 37.2 percent from beyond the arc during their 46 wins and 32.9 percent during their 26 losses.

Lakers shoot 37.2% from 3 during wins, 32.9% during losses

The Lakers are averaging 12.0 three-point field goals made per game in 2025-26. That's a key number that can be directly linked to the success the team has experienced and the lack thereof when they fail to exceed it.

Thus far in 2025-26, the Lakers are 25-7 when they exceed their average with 13 or more three-point field goals made and 21-19 when they fail to.

Though both records are above .500, one produces a winning percentage of .781 and the other .525. Those figures would equate to 64 and 43-win seasons. They also only scratch the surface of the issue of inefficiency that has plagued Los Angeles this season.

For instance: The Lakers have shot below 33 percent from beyond the arc in 26 games, going 13-13 during that time. They're 33-13 when they simply make at least one in three attempts.

Los Angeles is also 27-12 when it shoots at least 35.0 percent from beyond the arc compared to 19-14 when it fails to—winning percentages that equate to 57 and 47-win seasons. It's recently proven more adept at grinding out wins, but their most sustainable model of success revolves around three-point efficiency. Or, more accurately, not being woefully inefficient.

The Lakers don't need to obsess over shooting a high volume of threes, but if they fail to achieve a respectable baseline of efficiency, victory will be tough to come by in the playoffs.

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