Los Angeles Lakers superstar Luka Doncic isn't expected to finish in the top four in NBA MVP voting this season, a development that has The Ringer's Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe talking.
On a recent episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, Simmons pointed out that Luka has had just two top-4 finishes in MVP voting over his eight-year NBA career (a fourth-place finish in 2019-20 and a third-place finish in 2023-24).
According to Simmons and Lowe, this represents underachievement for Doncic, a player who virtually everyone expected to have an MVP trophy by now.
Luka Doncic is viewed as underachiever for still lacking an MVP
"Would you ever have guessed this?" Simmons asked Lowe, referring to how generational Luka looked during his rookie season, such that the entire basketball world assumed an MVP award was right around the corner.
Lowe then admitted that he's picked Luka as his preseason MVP favorite on multiple occasions, only to get burned later in the season once realizing that Luka's MVP odds have fizzled out (due to durability issues and/or defensive questions).
Simmons reiterated that Doncic positioned himself as the most MVP-worthy talent entering the 2020s, which makes it so surprising that Luka has yet to bag the award.
This is all a familiar tune for Luka fans who have admired the European megastar since his days on the Dallas Mavericks. It seems like every offseason, Luka MVP optimism reloads.
This past offseason was particularly hype-filled in that regard, as we all expected Luka, showing signs of body transformation over the summer, to be fueled by naysayers and his unfair departure from Dallas to pull off the best season of his career.
And in many ways, Luka is having a magical season! The guy is leading the NBA in scoring, for crying out loud. What else do you want from him?
MVP chances for Luka Doncic might rest on his durability
The answer coming from Lakers fans and NBA fans in general, whether it's fair or not, is: a lot more. Doncic has received constant criticism this year for his poor defense, much of which has been warranted.
In some cases, though, the negativity surrounding Luka has gotten out of hand. The media seems to have developed a fetish for lashing out at Luka ever since he showed any signs of basketball mortality wearing a Lakers uniform.
Durability remains the most likely barrier preventing Doncic from ever winning MVP. He played in 72 games his rookie season but hasn't reached that mark since, coming close in 2023-24 with 70 (full disclosure, two of Luka's eight NBA seasons were shortened due to COVID).
So far in his career, Luka's games played paint the picture of a guy who will always be at risk for falling below the 65-game minimum required for MVP consideration.
Moreover, to point at Luka's lack of athleticism or body type as the cause for his missed games isn't a completely sound argument. All you have to do to topple this take is to look at how durable Nikola Jokic has been for the Denver Nuggets in his career.
Across 11 seasons, Jokic has reached the 80-game mark twice and has fallen below the 70-game mark only twice (including being on track to do so this season). The MVP trophies have followed accordingly.
The good news for Luka is that MVP isn't the ultimate goal of this sport. Winning a championship is. The bad news is that a lot of the same criteria preventing Doncic from hoisting MVP hardware also gives him tough odds to ultimately bring a title to Los Angeles.